The volume and revenue projections for exports from the Brazilian soybean complex in 2020 were updated by DATAGRO Consulting. Total shipments were revised to 91.90 million tons from 93.60 million tons in the last estimate and 0.1% higher than the volume shipped in 2019 (91.78 million tons), but below the record volume of 101 .35 million tons in 2018.
Specific shipments of soybeans were updated by DATAGRO to 74.30 million tons, below the previous survey, but with an increase of 0.3% compared to 2019, 16.70 million tons of soybean meal, with 0.2% of increase, and the volume of 900 thousand tons of soybean oil, with a 13.5% decrease over the previous year.
The increase in shipments this season compared to 2019, despite a downward revision compared to the last estimate, follows preliminary projections for the Brazilian harvest with the harvest virtually completed, in addition to the positive rates of increase in world consumption, despite the crisis generated by Covid-19 , and the severe losses of the 2019 harvest in the United States.
The cut made in the projection of soybean exports was related to the review previously made by DATAGRO for potential soybean production in the 2019/20 harvest, which rose to 121.92 million tons compared to 123.62 million tons in the previous survey. Still, with an increase of 2% over the last harvest (119.19 million tons).
“An important factor of uncertainty comes with the impact of African swine fever (ASF) on Chinese demand for soybeans and corn. Due to the slaughter of a large part of the pig herd, the Chinese continue to increase meat imports to meet their demand, generating additional demand for bran and corn in supplier countries. Which is the case in Brazil”, says Flávio Roberto de França Junior, coordinator of DATAGRO Grãos.
France also lists as factors of attention the impact on the global economy generated by the Covid-19 crisis and its uncertain influence on the demand for food, the climate with the formation of an El Niño of weak intensity, similar to the characteristics of neutrality, in addition to the trade war between China and the USA, with a final solution still open.
The total revenue forecast fell to US$ 31.97 billion this year, 2.0% lower than the US$ US$ 32.63 billion at the end of 2019. The analysis takes into account partially lower average price estimates. “This projection of a mixed price scenario for the market in this new year, but with a predominance of falls, is associated with the partial retraction in demand due to the crisis brought about by the new coronavirus”, highlights França.
Source: DATA
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