The DATAGRO Grãos survey indicates a record import of the soybean complex for this year, estimating 123.4 million tons. This represents an increase of 21.4% compared to 2022, when 101.7 million tons were exported.
This includes 99.0 million tons of soybeans, 22.0 million tons of soybean meal, and 2.4 million tons of soybean oil.
One of the reasons for this increase is the estimated production of 157.0 million tons in 2023. With this large quantity destined for export, exports of soybeans and their derivatives are expected to generate a total revenue of US$ 66.7 billion, in addition. This revenue will be made up of US$ 52.5 billion from soybean sales, an increase of 12.9%. In addition, US$ 11.6 billion will come from the sale of bran, also with an increase of 12.9%.
Another US$ 2.6 billion will come from oil, but with an estimated drop of 32.9%. “These projections consider mixed average prices this year, but with a predominance of falls”, says Flávio Roberto de França Junior, economist at DATAGRO Grãos.
The projection for total revenue from Brazilian exports this year is US$ 330.0 billion, 1.2% lower than the record for 2022. If the estimates come true, the soybean complex will contribute 20.2%. This is higher than last year's record 18.2% and well above the 15.6% average participation over the last 10 years.
Projections for 2024: Export volume on the rise, revenue falling in the soybean complex
DATAGRO Grãos' first forecasts for next year point to an increase in volume, but indicate a reduction in revenue compared to 2023. “This is due to the expectation of some retraction in average FOB export prices across the entire complex next year”, explains França Junior.
Outputs from the soybean complex are projected at 128.4 million tons, an increase of 4.1% compared to what was forecast for this year. There would be 103.0 million tons of soybeans; 23.0 million tons of bran and 2.40 million tons of soybean oil.
However, in relation to revenue, the initial figures point to US$ 62.3 billion, which would represent a drop of 6.7% compared to the current year. For soybeans, US$ 49.4 billion (-5.8%) is expected; in the case of bran, US$ 10.3 billion (-11.2%); in oil, US$ 2.5 billion (-4.5%).
“Despite the gains in volumes, we expect limited revenue gains due to the forecast of slightly lower average prices”, says França Junior.
However, the possibility of reducing the share of soy complex exports in Brazil's overall shipments stands out. From 20.2% in 2023, this share could decrease to 18.3% in 2024. Still, it would be the second highest in history and higher than the average of the last 10 years, which was 15.6%.
Source: datagro
