Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase by 1.2% in 2021 compared to this year, totaling 82 million tons, according to DATAGRO Consulting. Revenue is expected to jump by 13%, to US$ 31.57 billion. These estimates for next year consider preliminary projections of a record Brazilian harvest of the oilseed, of 131.69 million tons, the increase in world consumption and partial losses in the United States harvest.
Considering the soybean complex, in addition to the forecast for grain shipments of 82 million tons, close to the 2018 record of 83.26 million tons, soybean meal is estimated at 17.80 million tons, an increase of 4.7% in the annual comparison, and soybean oil should have a retraction of 22.7% in exports next year compared to 2020, totaling a volume of 850 thousand tons.
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“The projection pointed to total shipments of 100.65 million tons for next year, 1.6% higher than the revised volume forecast for the current year. We then have confirmation of the natural tendency to maintain strong representation of the sector in the country's foreign trade”, says Flávio Roberto de França Junior, coordinator of DATAGRO Grãos.
Although the projection considers optimistic motivations for the jump in exports, such as an increase in the Brazilian soybean harvest next year, still positive rates of increase in world consumption and partial losses in the new harvest in the United States, limiting factors were also taken into account, which are still being monitored, such as African swine fever (ASF), the climate facing the possibility of a La Niña and Sino-American tensions.
In terms of revenue from exports, DATAGRO's projections are also predominantly positive for next year in the soybean complex. It would be US$ 31.57 billion resulting from sales of soybeans, a value 13% higher than the current year, US$ 6.59 billion from bran shipments by Brazil, a jump of 13.9% in the annual comparison, and US$ 629 million from sales of oil, a drop of 15.3% over the current year.
“Due to this good forecast of an increase in the total volume to be shipped, we have an indication that the total revenue to be obtained from exports from the Brazilian soybean complex in 2021 will be significant again. However, initially still below the absolute record of 2018. The total revenue forecast reached US$ 38.78 billion, 12.5% higher than the revised estimate for 2020”, points out França.
Source: DATA
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