Corn prices in Chicago also fell during this week, closing Thursday (09) at US$ 3.44/bushel, against US$ 3.62 a week earlier. Likewise, the corn market worked in anticipation of the USDA supply and demand report, to be released on 10/05. On the other hand, the turnaround in negotiations surrounding the trade dispute between China and the USA only partially affects the corn market as the Chinese do not import the aforementioned product.
For now, climate concerns are weighing heavily on the market as cereal planting in the US continues to be very delayed. It indicated, until May 5th, 23% of the sown area, against 46% in the historical average. Furthermore, from now on planting enters its decisive period. The good news is that there are prospects for an improvement in the weather in the American Midwest in the coming days.
As for the report on 10/05, the market expected a harvest indication of around 375.2 million tons for the current US harvest that is being sown. Local ending stocks would be 54.4 million tons. In our next bulletin we will comment on the numbers in this report.
Finally, net sales of corn in the USA, in the week ending 04/25, totaled 586,500 tons, 17% below the average of the previous four weeks.
In Argentina, the FOB ton of corn rose to US$ 158.00, while in Paraguay it remained at US$ 102.50.
In Brazil, prices stabilized, however, maintaining the downward trend. The Rio Grande do Sul counter closed the week at R$ 30.29/bag, while lots ranged between R$ 32.50 and R$ 33.00/bag. In other national markets, lots ranged between R$ 23.00/bag in Sorriso and Campo Novo do Parecis (MT) and R$ 33.50 in Itanhandu (MG) and Concórdia (SC).
In general terms, stocks are still adequate for consumers as the second season approaches harvest (by the end of May the first areas should be harvested). Therefore, a further drop in prices is expected from June in particular. The climate in the off-season areas would have returned to normal, dispelling concerns about the lack of rain. In this context, a rise in corn prices would only come if the Real further increases its devaluation, stimulating exports, and/or there are actually problems with the corn crop in the USA, which is being sown and whose harvest will take place at from September.
For now, with the arrival of the off-season, sales pressures should be important as there is still not enough stimulus for exports, even at an exchange rate of around R$ 3.95 per dollar.
In this sense, Brazilian corn exports, in the 21 working days of April, totaled just 426,000 tons, at an average price of US$ 186.00 per ton.
Post | Guilherme R. Bezzarro 16:21:09
Author | Leonardo Gottems
Source | agrolink
