Image: Pixabay
Grain production in the 2022/23 harvest in the country is estimated at 310.946 million tons. If confirmed, the volume represents an increase of 14.5%, that is, 39.3 million tons more to be harvested than last season. This is what the fourth grain harvest survey shows, released by the National Supply Company (Conab), this Thursday (12).
In relation to the previous estimate, released in December, when 312.2 million tons were projected, the data show an adjustment in the total volume produced, due to the influence of adverse weather in some producing regions, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, impacting the productivity mainly of corn and soybeans.
{module Form RD}
“The start of sowing was slightly delayed, influenced by excessive rain and low temperatures in parts of the states in the South and Southeast regions. There were also water restrictions, combined with low soil humidity in part of the Central-West region and in Matopiba, but planting was completed within the agricultural calendar”, highlights the superintendent of Agricultural Information at Conab, Candice Romero Santos.
The main product grown in the country, soybeans are nearing completion, with production expected for the oilseed at 152.7 million tons, 22.2% higher than the 2021/22 harvest. Crop development is considered satisfactory in most regions, with rainfall occurring in good volume and frequency. “However, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, the poor distribution of rainfall, both in volume and regularity, affects crop potential in most regions. In Mato Grosso, the voluminous and widespread rains in the main producing regions favored the development of crops in the largest grain producing state”, reinforces the president of Conab, Guilherme Ribeiro.
The planting of first-crop corn also enters the final stretch, with only areas in Rio Grande do Sul and Matopiba remaining to complete operations. Climatic conditions varied in the producing regions, with excess rainfall in Goiás and Minas Gerais, and low volumes or even no rainfall in Maranhão and southern Brazil. The production forecast for this cycle is 26.46 million tons, 5.7% higher than that obtained last season.
Other cultures
For rice, Conab predicts an area reduction of 9.3%, estimated at 1.5 million hectares, with a production forecast of 10.4 million tons. A drop of 1.8% in the total area planned to be sown with beans is also expected. The harvest, adding the 3 harvests of the product, can reach 2.96 million tons.
Among winter crops, wheat stands out. With the harvest over, cereal production reached a new record, estimated at 9.8 million tons, a volume 27.2% higher when compared to the last harvest. The result is influenced both by the growth of the area and by good weather conditions.
Market
In this survey, estimates for soybeans in the 2022/23 harvest remain relatively stable in relation to the last bulletin. Highlight is the projection of grain crushing in 2023, which increases from 50.68 million tons to 52.74 million tons, due to the continued use of biodiesel in diesel in 10% (B10) in the first three months of 2023, but with the expectation that in the coming months the mixture will increase to 15% (B15). As a result, and mainly driven by the increase in processing, the estimated final stocks at the end of 2023 should increase from 6 million tons to 5.62 million tons. In relation to the 2021/22 harvest, oilseed exports closed the year at 78.93 million tons, a reduction of 8.3% in relation to the 2020/21 harvest, driven by the drop that occurred.
For corn, consumption data remained stable in relation to the previous survey, while carryover stocks were adjusted to 5.3 million tons. The main reason for the reduction was the revision of the export estimate, which went from 41.5 to 43.5 million tons, considering the good performance recorded in December and the shipment estimates for January. Regarding the 2022/23 harvest compared to the 2021/22 harvest, the prospect of an increase of 7.7% in domestic consumption remains. Exports remain estimated at 45 million tons due to increased external demand for Brazilian cereal. This scenario, together with greater Brazilian production, allows for an estimate of the replenishment of grain stocks at the end of the 2022/23 harvest, estimated at 7.3 million tons.
The bulletin also points to rice imports at 1.2 million tons, resulting in a balanced trade balance for the next harvest. Even so, the outlook is for the carryover stock to shrink to 1.7 million tons at the end of 2023. The slight increase in production of the bean harvest, from 2.89 million tons to 2.96 million tons , allows an increase in carry-over stocks for the 2022/23 harvest, from 192.9 thousand tons to 264.2 thousand tons.
For wheat, in the harvest that began commercialization in August 2022 and will end in July this year, production underwent a slight adjustment, reaching a record volume of approximately 9.8 million tons. This increase allows for a reduction in imports, from 6.1 to 6 million tons. As a result, the country should end the harvest with a carryover stock of 1.19 million tons.
A 2nd harvest crop, cotton has stable estimates in this 4th survey, in relation to those in the 3rd. The highlight is the increase of 6.7% in ending stocks, due to the increase in production forecast for the 2022/23 harvest in relation to the last survey. With information from Conab's press office.
Source: Arno Baasch | Crops & Market
