The futures of soy continue to trade higher on the Chicago Stock Exchange this Friday (11), following a generalized recovery movement in agricultural commodities. At around 9:50 am (Brasília time), gains ranged from 2.50 to 5 points in the most traded contracts, with May and August worth US$ 10.31 per bushel.
Among derivatives, today is a day of profit-taking for bran, which had been rising sharply in recent days, and of adjustment for oil, which was recovering after intense losses in previous sessions.
On the same exchange, wheat leads the gains with gains of over 2%, with the first contract traded at US$ 5.50 per bushel. Traders are once again observing market fundamentals and adjusting their positions, attentive to the macro scenario and the escalation of the trade conflict, especially between China and the United States.
Global context and American harvest on the radar
China has announced an increase in tariffs on US goods to 125%, which, according to analysts and consultants, rekindles the warning of a possible global recession. Even with the adjustments after previous falls, markets remain sensitive to developments in the global economy.
In addition to the macroeconomic scenario, traders are monitoring the start of the new American harvest and weather conditions in the Corn Belt and South America, essential factors for the direction of grain prices.
USDA support and currency impact
The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) released its new monthly supply and demand report yesterday. The report showed a reduction in US ending stocks of soybeans and corn. In addition, it indicated an increase in US corn exports, which supported prices on the CBOT.
In addition, another relevant factor is the exchange rate movement. Currently, the dollar has fallen by more than 1% against the real, which consequently contributes to the appreciation of soybeans on the Chicago Stock Exchange. This combination of a high dollar in Brazil, a firm Chicago and positive premiums has therefore driven strong trading of the Brazilian oilseed. As a result, there were intense days of trading. In total, around six million tons were traded throughout the week.
Record price and sales growth
The high sales volume is a direct result of the attractive prices. There was an increase of around R$10.00 per bag, according to Vlamir Brandalizze, consultant at Brandalizze Consulting. “This week, we had the best soybean prices of the year,” says the specialist. He highlights that Brazil has already traded almost 100 million tons of the current harvest, taking advantage of the good times in the market.
Source: Carla Mendes | Notícias Agrícolas
