The European Commission adjusted its agricultural forecasts last Thursday, highlighting a challenging scenario for the wheat, but with positive signs for the corn. The estimate for the European Union's main wheat crop was cut to a new 12-year low, while the forecast for the current corn crop was revised up, breaking a six-month streak of downward adjustments.
Historic reduction in wheat harvest
In the latest supply and demand data, the Commission revised EU usable common wheat production for 2024/25 from 112.6 million metric tons in September to 112.3 million tons in October. This represents a decrease of 10% compared to the previous season and marks the lowest level since 2012/13.
Heavy and persistent rains last year severely impacted crop yields, resulting in France's smallest harvest in decades.
In addition, the Commission adjusted its projection for soft wheat ending stocks for 2024/25, reducing them from 10.4 million tonnes to 9.8 million tonnes, reflecting lower production and a slight increase in the use of wheat as animal feed.
Despite these cuts, EU soft wheat exports remain unchanged, forecast at 25.0 million tonnes, a considerable reduction compared to the 35.3 million tonnes exported in the 2023/24 harvest.
Optimism for the corn harvest
While wheat faces a downturn, corn is bringing some relief to the market. The European Commission has raised its corn production forecast for 2024/25 from 58.0 million tonnes to 59.6 million tonnes, although the volume is still around 3% below last year’s figure.
After a series of downward revisions due to severe drought and heat waves that affected southeastern Europe, Romania and France received the largest positive adjustments to their estimates. In the French case, a more robust corn crop is expected this year.
The Commission raised its corn production forecast. It also raised estimated imports to 19.5 million tonnes, an increase of 0.5 million tonnes. These adjustments led to a revision of ending stocks for 2024/25, from 17.4 million tonnes to 19.4 million tonnes.
Barley remains stable, but stocks fall
The European Commission maintained EU barley production at 49.8 million tonnes. However, it reduced projected end-of-season stocks. The estimate was lowered from 3.2 million to 2.6 million tonnes. The adjustment was a result of downward revisions to opening stocks and imports.
The European Commission’s reviews highlight the disparities in the bloc’s agricultural performance. Severe weather challenges are putting pressure on some crops. Meanwhile, others are showing signs of recovery.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas
