Confinement falls and meat prices should rise in Goiás The confinement regime in Goiás should bring together around 750 thousand cattle – the equivalent of 20% less than last year. This reduction, according to producers, is directly linked to the pandemic. This shows that in the coming months the price of meat should increase for consumers.
The ox arroba could reach the value of R$ 220 in the coming months
The confinement regime in Goiás should bring together around 750 thousand cattle – the equivalent of 20% less than last year. This reduction, according to producers, is directly linked to the pandemic. This shows that in the coming months the price of meat should increase for consumers. Safra, a consultancy specializing in Brazilian agribusiness, points out that cattle prices have already risen in several regions of the country and in Goiás it will be no different.
On the other hand, the costs of fattening the animal are expensive. 80% of the investment in the herd is for feeding the cattle. This year, the price of food was impacted, especially by corn, one of the main components of the feed, which is more expensive. The rise in the dollar and input prices also weighed on the account. Last year, the daily amount spent on feeding each animal was R$ 7.98. Now it is at R$ 9.17.
In an interview with O Hoje, the market analyst at the Institute for the Strengthening of Agriculture of Goiás (IFAG), Marcelo Penha, explains that this could happen due to the sales pressure that beef has suffered due to the new Coronavirus. “Depending on the economic class, if the meat is more expensive, the consumer will substitute it for a cheaper one, which would be chicken or pork”, he highlights.
The bet, according to him, is that the increase in beef prices will reach R$ 220. “Brazil has become the largest meat exporter in the world by expanding production capacity. With the economy improving, it can increase what it costs even more than it is today,” he says.
At the beginning of the pandemic, there was a price increase of around R$ 50 arroba compared to last year. Commerce also had to stop, which contributed to these changes in values. Furthermore, he explains, “the foreign market, such as China, had to switch consumption to beef due to swine fever”, informs Marcelo.
As a result, China began to like beef. This fact caused Brazil's herd to gain value and resulted in an increase. “So the pandemic promoted this. And, in the last two weeks, with the opening of commerce, people went back to work and the domestic market heated up”, he highlights. According to him, the domestic market is responsible for 80% of what is produced across the country.
Relief
With the reopening of commerce in several municipalities in the State, there was an influx of money into the family budget and relief for livestock farmers. “It boosted the sale of arrobas of beef, causing the domestic market to react. Livestock farmers, in turn, also looked for ways to overcome the crisis. “As his [rancher] production process is extensive, he can keep the cattle for six months to a year and a half. If he can hold the herd in bad times, he will. Our scale today is fast”, he highlights.
When there is a lot of supply, negotiations with buyers can last up to two weeks. This means that the price of meat is bad, says the expert. “The producer has learned that, if he is not profitable, he does not sell enough cattle and waits for the price to return to normal”, he emphasizes. The ox arrives at confinement weighing around 350 kg and, after 90 days, is ready for slaughter, weighing an average of 550 kg.
Exports will continue
The recovery of China's pig herd after the African swine fever epidemic, which has hit the country since August 2018, will not be enough to supply the country's domestic supply for the next three years. The assessment was made by Agribusiness, Food & Beverage analyst at Itaú BBA, André Hachem. “The dynamics of protein exports to China are still very favorable. The import of beef and pork by China should last for at least two to three years until the reconstruction of the domestic herd”, assesses the analyst.
Source: agrolink
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