The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that China should continue importing significant beef and pork until the end of this year. Of pork, the country is expected to import a record 3.9 million tons – a volume 57% greater than that acquired from abroad in 2019, projects the Department, in a report released today. As for beef, the Chinese should acquire 2.5 million tons – a volume 15% higher than the previous year, the agency predicts.
According to the USDA, the increase in imports of both cuts is due to the prospect of an increase in domestic beef consumption and the still depressed production of pork. “With low pork production in 2020, resulting in high prices for the product, many Chinese consumers will opt for beef as an alternative protein”, assesses the USDA. In the year, consumption of beef cuts should reach 9.45 million tons, an increase of 7% compared to domestic demand in 2019, predicts the USDA.
The US government department considers that, although beef prices are high, most processors should remain cautious about not increasing livestock production, due to the increase in the cost of inputs. “The number of cattle heads is expected to end up basically stable in 2020. Most of the increase in demand for beef will be met by imports,” adds the agency. This year, China's beef production should reach 7 million tons – an annual increase of 4%, the agency projects.
According to the USDA, part of the growth in beef consumption by the Chinese is due to the country's difficulty in resuming pork production since the beginning of the African swine fever (ASF) epidemic in August 2018. , which decimated the country's squad. “Despite the low number of official reported cases of ASF and robust recovery efforts in the second half of 2019, hog production and slaughter in general will remain depressed in 2020,” assesses the department.
Given the Chinese government's encouragement for producers to resume their breeding stock, the USDA estimates that the country's pig stock should end this year 9% higher than last year, at 337 million animals. Animal slaughter is expected to fall between 20% and 24% compared to last year, with production reaching 34 million tons. “However, the gap in China’s pork supply vastly exceeds the available global supply, resulting in persistently high prices,” says the USDA.
Regarding Chinese imports, from both cuts, the USDA emphasizes that the signing and implementation of the bilateral agreement between the United States and China should encourage the import of North American products by the Asian country. “Additionally, tariff exclusions for U.S. meat imports will encourage additional purchases in 2020,” the report concludes.
Source: Industrial Pig Farming
{module 441}
