China raised its estimates for the country's soybean imports and edible oil production, according to the monthly update of its China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE), released by AgriCensus.
The September 12 report raised estimates for the 2022/23 business year (MY) and 2023/24 MY – China's MY runs from October to September of the following year for corn, soybeans and vegetable oils – to 99.86 million tons and 97.25 million tons, respectively.
These estimates surpassed those of the previous month, which were 95.2 million tons and 94.22 million tons, respectively.
The expected increase in soybean imports in 2023/24 is mainly due to a high demand for feed protein raw materials from China's livestock and poultry industry, according to Casde analysts cited in the report.
Despite the estimated growth in imports, analysts said global soybean prices remained relatively high due to disruptive factors such as high temperatures during the critical growing period of the new US soybean season, combined with a decline in the CNY exchange rate. /US$.
Increase in edible oil and soybean production estimates for the next fiscal years
We increased edible oil production estimates for 2022/23 and 2023/24, reaching 30.5 and 30.25 million tons, respectively. This compared to previous estimates of 30.09 million tonnes and 29.7 million tonnes made in August.
Edible oil production increased due to the increase in soybean imports, boosting soybean oil, according to analysts at Casde.
Estimates for Chinese edible oil imports remained unchanged for 2022/23 and 2023/24, at 8.63 million tonnes and 8.43 million tonnes. However, edible oil consumption estimates also remained unchanged for both periods, at 36.32 million tonnes and 36.61 million tonnes.
The committee also maintained its soybean production estimates for 2022/23 and 2023/24 at 20.29 million tonnes and 21.46 million tonnes, respectively. Therefore, we can conclude that projections for the edible oil and soybean market in China remain stable over the next two years. This is important for producers and exporters of these products, since demand and supply appear to be balanced. Furthermore, these numbers may impact prices on the international market, as China is one of the largest consumers and importers of these products. Therefore, it is essential to closely monitor these estimates, as they can influence the dynamics of the global agricultural commodities market.
Source: Oils & Fats International
