Soybean shipments from Brazil continue to attract attention due to the strength they still exhibit this month of July. According to figures from Secex (Secretariat of Foreign Trade), there are already more than 6.1 million tons in the first 13 working days of the month alone, which brings the accumulated total in 2020 to 70 million tons. A year ago, in this same period, there were just over 48 million.
“The pace remains strong and there is still room to grow. Everything indicates that, this month, soybeans still have a lot to be shipped and the final data for the month could be close to 9 million tons or even higher”, explains Vlamir Brandalizze, market consultant at Brandalizze Consulting. “Although we are not seeing new closures, shipments are already scheduled and covered”, he adds.
Brandalizze Consulting's projection is that Brazil will export more than 83 million tons of soy this year, approaching the 2018 record of 83.5 million. “There is room to grow and break the historic record”, says the consultant. The same happens with the entire soybean complex – including grain, bran and oil – which already has 80.7 million tons, compared to just over 53 million last year and with the potential to also reach the record of 101.5 million recorded. two years ago.
EXPORTS
If 2020 is surprising due to the numbers of soybean exports in Brazil, it is no different for imports. Also according to data from Secex, in July, Brazilian purchases of the oilseed totaled 66 thousand tons, 20.2 thousand of which in the last week alone.
In the same period last year, imports were 6.5 thousand tons and in July, 12.7 thousand. For weeks, Notícias Agrícolas has been highlighting the growth in Brazilian oilseed imports, given the strength of this year's exports and the growing need for the product, mainly internally.
Data from Cepea show that this season's stock x consumption ratio is the lowest since the 2011/12 harvest. “With firm external and domestic demands, the stock/final consumption ratio at 48.55% could be the lowest since the 2011/12 season, when Brazilian production was 93.73 million tons, that is, 25.6% lower than 2019/20 (126 million tons)”, say the Cepea researchers.
And that is why, in the first half of the year alone, Brazilian imports grew by 197.2% compared to the same period in 2019 and totaled, as Secex shows, more than 272 thousand tons. And as the image below shows, Paraguay is Brazil's main supplier.
Despite this considerable increase, soybeans still account for only 0.1% in Brazil's total imports and 3.96% in imports from the agricultural sector, also as shown by data from the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas
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