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National grain production is estimated at 271.696 million tons, an increase of 5.7% or 14.7 million tons higher than that produced in 2019/20. The historic position is due to record soybean production and an estimated increase in total corn. The result is from the 8th survey of the 2020/2021 grain harvest, released this Wednesday (12), by the National Supply Company (Conab).
First harvest crops, with the exception of corn and rice, are at the end of their harvest. For second harvest crops, such as beans, the flowering and grain filling stages predominate. As for second harvest corn, given the delay in sowing, but with a significant percentage of vegetative development and flowering, the crop will depend on weather conditions. In the case of winter crops, planting intensifies this month, but will depend on the volume of rainfall.
Even with a still record volume, compared to last month's estimate, there is a reduction of 2.1 million tons. The reduction is mainly due to the delay in the soybean harvest and, as a consequence, the planting of a large part of the second harvest corn area outside the ideal window, combined with the low occurrence of rainfall. Therefore, there is already a reduction in the expected productivity of the cereal.
Area
The forecast for planted area is for growth of 4.1% or 2.7 million hectares, reaching 68.6 million hectares. The highlights are soybeans, with an increase of 4.2% or 1.6 million hectares, and corn, the second harvest, with a gain of 8.8%, corresponding to 1.2 million hectares.
Soybeans maintain their prominence, with a record production estimated at 135.4 million tons, 8.5% or 10.6 million tons higher than the 2019/20 harvest. Brazil secures the title of largest legume producer in the world.
For corn, whose total production is estimated at 106.4 million tons, the growth is 3.7% over the 2019/20 production. 24.7 million tons are produced in the first harvest, with a forecast of 79.8 million in the second harvest and 1.9 million in the third harvest.
For other grains, some increased production. Cotton has an estimated total of 6 million tons for seed, corresponding to 2.4 million tons of lint. Rice reached 11.6 million tons, an increase of 3.9% compared to the volume produced in the previous harvest. Of these, 10.7 million tons come from irrigated crops and 900 thousand tons from the rainfed system. Beans reduce 3.6% in the accumulated result of the three harvests, totaling 3.1 million tons. And for peanuts, there is an increase of 7.1% in production compared to that obtained in 2019/20, reaching around 597 thousand tons.
Winter crops (oats, canola, rye, barley, wheat and triticale) are beginning to be planted. Specifically for wheat, preliminary estimates indicate an area of 2.5 million hectares and production of 6.6 million tons.
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Market
Cotton feather continues to have a positive outlook in the international market. Exports accumulated from January to April 2021 increased by 28% compared to the same period of the previous year.
In relation to corn, even with shipments still slow, demand in the external scenario points to a forecast of 35 million tons exported in the current harvest, a value practically equal to what was observed for the 2019/2020 harvest.
As for soybeans, Conab estimates the sale of 85.6 million tons outside the country, an increase of 3.3% compared to last year. If the prediction is confirmed, it will be a record in the historical series. Finally, for rice, exports in April are at a 14% lower pace, when compared to the same month last year. In the year to April, there was also a drop of 19% in exported volume, due to the low availability of the product at the beginning of the year. The information comes from Conab's press office.
By: Arno Baasch | Crops & Market
