The 5th Survey of the 2020/21 Grain Harvest, released this Thursday by the National Supply Company (Conab), points to an increase in total expected production, expected to reach 268.3 million tons, or 4.4% (11.4 million tons) higher than that obtained in 2019/20.
Compared to the previous survey, the study indicates that there was a gain of 3.5 million tons, which is supported by the growth of 4.4% in the second harvest corn planting area. This culture is still being sown. In relation to the total planted area, estimated at 67.7 million hectares, it represents an increase of 2.7% in relation to the previous harvest.
Carried out in the last week of January, the research shows that the harvest of first-crop crops is currently underway. This is a period in which most of these areas will be used for the subsequent planting of second and third harvest crops.
In relation to corn in the first harvest, there was a reduction of 0.8% in the cultivated area. Expected production is 23.6 million tons. Adding the second and third harvests, total production could reach 105.5 million tons, 2.9% higher than that obtained in 2019/20. Soybeans have maintained the growth trend in the cultivated area. In this harvest, the estimate points to an area of 38.3 million hectares, growth of 3.6% in relation to the previous cycle and a production of 133.8 million tons.
Beans show growth in the first harvest of 0.6% in the area and production estimated at 1 million tons. When the three harvests are added together, this production number rises to 3.2 million tons. Meanwhile, the rice harvest is expected to suffer a reduction of 2.3% in the cultivated area, totaling 1.7 million hectares and 10.9 million tons in production.
Finally, in relation to other crops, cotton shows a concentration of planting in January, and a forecast drop of 13.1% in the area and 16% in production. Wheat will begin planting in March, with prospects for growth of 2.1% in the sown area and 6.4 million tons of production.
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Grain Market
In relation to corn, the cereal ended the crop year in January 2021 with exports of 34.8 million tons, which represents a reduction of 14.9% compared to last year, maintaining the export forecast of 35 million tons until the end of January 2022. In the current month, shipments reached 2.5 million tons, 22% more than in the same period last year.
Soybeans are estimated to be sold to the foreign market at 85.6 million tons this year. In January, the pace of exports was slow due to the small quantity of the crop harvested, but if expectations for the year are confirmed, the volume will be a record in the historical series, with an increase of 3.12%.
For cotton, exports continued at an accelerated pace compared to the historical average in January, but with a drop of 11.34% compared to Jan/2020. In the case of rice, the highlight goes to imports, which closed the first month of the year at 131.1 thousand tons, compared to 59.6 thousand tons observed in the same period in 2020. The information comes from Conab's press office.
Review: Arno Baasch (arno@safras.com.br) / Agência SAFRAS
