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Meat, coffee and crude oil led to a drop in exports.
The drop in exports of coffee, beef and oil caused the trade balance surplus to decline in February. Last month, the country exported US$ 2.837 billion more than it imported, even so there was a decrease of 35.3% compared to February last year, when the balance had registered a surplus of US$ 4.629 billion. Despite the drop, this is the third best result for the month, second only to February 2022 and 2017.
In the first two months of the year, the trade balance accumulated a surplus of US$ 5.446 billion. This represents 19.2% more than that recorded in the same months last year using the daily average criterion. The accumulated balance is the second best for the period since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989. It is only behind the surplus of US$ 6.722 billion in the first two months of 2017.
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Last month, Brazil sold US$ 20.56 billion abroad and purchased US$ 17.723 billion. Exports fell by 7.7% compared to February 2022, based on the daily average criterion, but the value is the second best in the month, second only to last year. Imports fell by 0.9% according to the daily average criterion and reached the third highest monthly value in history, second only to February 2022 and 2014.
In the case of exports, the drop is due more to the decrease in the volume sold than to the international prices of goods. Last month, the volume of exported goods fell by an average of 12.3% compared to February last year, while average prices fell by 0.8%.
In imports, the quantity purchased fell by 6.3%, reflecting the slowdown in the economy, but average prices increased by 1.2%. The rise in prices was mainly driven by chemical compounds and medicines, items that became more expensive after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Chemical fertilizer prices, which rose sharply last year, fell by 19.7% from February 2022 to February 2023.
Sectors – In the agricultural sector, the delay in shipments had a greater impact on the drop in exports, despite the appreciation of commodities (primary goods with international prices). The average price increased by 8.4% in February compared to the same month in 2022, while the volume of goods shipped fell by 13.1%. In the manufacturing industry, the quantity exported fell by 5.4%, with the average price increasing by 4.2%.
In the extractive industry, which encompasses the export of minerals and oil, the quantity exported fell by 29.4%, and average prices fell by 17.3% compared to February last year.
Crude oil once again led to the drop in exports, with volume falling by 58.8% and prices falling by 22%. This occurred due to the maintenance of Petrobras platforms. After a year of continuous increases, oil prices are falling because the effects of the war in Ukraine and the economic recovery after the most acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic have already been incorporated into prices.
In the comparison between February last year and this year, the products most prominent in the drop in agricultural exports were raw cotton (73.1%), unroasted coffee (44.3%) and soybeans (3%) in agriculture.
In the extractive industry, the biggest drops were recorded in exports of stone, sand and gravel (68.4%), crude petroleum oil or bituminous minerals, crude (67.9%) and nickel ores and their concentrates (100%). In the manufacturing industry, the biggest falls occurred in rolled steel (57.6%) and beef (27%), reflecting the suspension of exports to China after the discovery of the case of mad cow disease in Pará, and sugars and molasses (19.2%).
As for imports, the biggest drops were recorded in wheat and rye, not milled (21.6%); horticultural products (24.7%) and latex (41.4%), in agriculture; other ores and concentrates of base metals (16.1%), coal (31.2%) and natural gas (85%), in the extractive industry; and chemical fertilizers or fertilizers (39.2%), boilers (98.1%) and thermionic valves and tubes (26.1%), in the transformation industry.
I estimated - Unlike usual, the Foreign Trade Secretariat did not release an estimate for the trade balance this year. Traditionally, projections are released in the first month of each quarter. The Focus bulletin, a survey of market analysts released every week by the Central Bank, projects a surplus of US$ 57.35 billion this year.
Source: agrolink
