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Revenue from Brazilian exports of agribusiness products continued to advance in the first four months of 2023, but the pace of increase was less intense than that seen in previous years.
Research by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), Esalq/USP, carried out based on data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC), Secretariat of Foreign Trade – Siscomex system – shows that, from January As of April 2023, the sector's dollar revenue grew by 4.3% compared to the same period of the previous year, driven by the increase in volume – 9.8% –, as prices in dollars fell by 5%. In national currency, revenue increased by 4.9%.
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Cepea researchers highlight that the products that most contributed to the increase in exported volume were corn (shipments grew by a significant 144%), ethanol (+74%), soybean oil (26.1%), pork (+16 .4%), chicken meat (+13.4%), cellulose (+9.8%), soybeans (+3.3%), sugar (+2.5%) and soybean meal (+1.1%) .
As for the drop in the average price paid for Brazilian agribusiness products, Cepea researchers indicate that this movement is due to the slowdown in the growth rate of international demand in 2023 and also to the advance in global production.
EXPECTATIONS – The growth rate of economies around the world has been declining, resulting in less demand pressure on commodity prices. On the supply side, the high prices practiced in 2021 and 2022 led to an increase in production in important countries. In Brazil, the increase of more than 14% in the grain harvest is confirmed, with soybean production growing by more than 20% in the 2022/23 cycle. However, sanitary and phytosanitary concerns remain on the producers' agenda, mainly due to the emergence of cases of avian influenza in wild birds in the country.
As for the exchange rate, the expectation of financial market agents is that it will remain close to R$ 5 this year, and could remain below this level if the public debt control program is efficient. Furthermore, inflation should remain more moderate, due to the expected stability of the dollar and the cooling of raw material prices. The agro-export sector, after being blessed with record production, can only hope that prices on the international market are not too depreciated so that they can surpass the record value of external revenue obtained in 2022.
Source: agrolink
