Soybean production in Argentina is forecast to significantly increase to almost 150% in the 2023/24 marketing year. Favorable weather conditions, including abundant rainfall during the planting season, contributed to this growth, as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported and World Grain reported.
The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report estimates Argentine soybean production of 50.5 million tons this season. This number represents a considerable jump compared to the 20.5 million tons recorded in 2022/23. In fact, the previous year was marked by a severe drought, which negatively affected both productivity and cultivated area. However, this current projection, if confirmed, would represent the largest harvest since the 2018/19 season, which had a production of 55.8 million tons.
Changes in soybean processing
In 2022, the agency adjusted its forecast for soybean processing (or 'crushing', which involves separating soybean oil and soybean meal) to 26 million tonnes, citing decreased exports and lower operating rates. in the last decades. For this year, an increase to 40 million tons is expected.
Influence of climate and government policies
The El Niño weather pattern has facilitated recovery from Argentina's worst drought in more than 60 years. Above-average rainfall hit key growing regions in early November and persisted through December. Additionally, potential changes in the new government's economic policy, which could encourage exports, led the USDA to increase its projection for soybean planting area by 800,000 hectares, totaling 17.2 million hectares.
Argentine exports and impact on the global market
Estimated Argentine soy exports for 2023/24 are 6 million tons, tripling the previous year, impacting the global market significantly.
The 2023/24 Argentine soybean season could mark a breakthrough, influenced by favorable weather and potential economic changes. This evolution is crucial to understanding the dynamics of global commodity trade, especially in the agricultural sector.
Source: Oils & Fats International
