Image: PixabayU.S. farmers plan to increase corn acreage in 2023, eyeing lower prices for the fertilizer needed for the crop and hoping for a bumper harvest after a late-season drought withered last year's grain harvest and left US corn stocks at near-decade lows.
Plans for the next season were made even with greater doubts regarding demand and with soybean price gains surpassing corn at the end of last year. But early acreage forecasts and interviews with farmers show that faith in the biggest U.S. crop has not waned.
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A big crop from the world's biggest corn exporter, compared with more modest demand as global economic growth cools, could further reduce prices of the staple used in fuel and animal feed, which have fallen after reaching an all-time high. level in 10 years when Russia invaded Ukraine, a major corn producer, a year ago.
The drop in the cost of key inputs such as fertilizers in the second half of 2022 raised hopes that corn would be profitable in 2023, although it typically requires a more active management style and greater financial investment than the second most profitable U.S. crop, that of soy.
Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights predict that US farmers will plant 90.5 million acres of corn in 2023, 2.2% more than the previous year and a more modest increase of 0.6% for soybeans, mirroring other early forecasts .
DEMAND DECREASES
North American farmers alternate between soybeans and corn in an attempt to maintain soil health. After favoring soybeans last year when fertilizer prices soared, many are expected to devote most of those fields to corn.
But bushels of corn may have a hard time finding a home after harvest begins in September.
Since last year's harvest, exporters have recorded sales of just 24.038 million tons of US corn, down 43% from the previous year, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In January, the government released its latest corn export forecast for the full year: 48.9 million tons, 19.8% below the initial export projection in May 2022.
On the domestic front, US corn consumption was pegged at a seven-year low of 304.561 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year, down 4% from the previous year. This was largely due to weakening demand for feed as the U.S. beef cattle herd fell to its lowest level since 1962 and an outbreak of bird flu devastated commercial herds.
Source: Mark Weinraub | Notícias Agrícolas
