O president of the United States, Donald Trump is expected to announce 20% tariffs on most goods imported into the United States on Wednesday, after previously imposing steep duties on autos, steel and aluminum and on products from China, Mexico and Canada.
The measures, in turn, have triggered retaliation and threats of further countermeasures from major importers of U.S. agricultural products, and have caused major swings in commodity markets. As a result, economists have said that U.S. consumers could face higher food prices. This impact is likely to affect a wide range of products, from meat and dairy to avocados. In addition, fresh fruits and vegetables are also among the items that could become more expensive as a direct result of the tariffs.
On the other hand, retaliation by countries such as China, Canada and Mexico is likely to significantly harm the US agricultural export sector, which is worth around US$191 billion. It is worth noting that these three countries represent the main markets for US agricultural products. In 2024 alone, for example, they imported a total of US$191 billion in agricultural products and related items from the United States.
During Donald Trump's first term, the imposition of retaliatory tariffs had similarly severe effects, causing substantial losses in US agricultural exports. According to Rabobank analysts, these measures resulted in a total loss of approximately US$1.4T27 billion. Of this amount, approximately US$1.4T25.7 billion relates solely to reduced sales to China.
US Agricultural Exports
Soybeans, the top U.S. agricultural export by value, as well as corn, wheat and meat exports, are vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs.
Soy
Exports totaled $1.5 billion in 2024, down from $27.7 billion in 2023 and a record high of nearly $34.4 billion in 2022, according to trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Exports to the top market, China, totaled US$12.8 billion in 2024, down from US$15.1 billion in 2023 and a record US$17.9 billion in 2022.
Trade tensions with Beijing in 2018 caused total U.S. soybean exports to fall to a nine-year low, with shipments to China falling 74% from the previous year.
Value of US Soybean Exports in 2024:
China: US$ 12.8 billion
Mexico: US$ 2.3 billion
Indonesia: US$ 1.3 billion
Corn
U.S. corn exports to all destinations in 2024 totaled $13.9 billion. That was up from a three-year low in 2023, when sales reached $13.1 billion. However, it was still below the all-time high of $18.6 billion set in 2021. The data is from the Census Bureau.
Total exports in 2024, in value terms, grew by 6% compared to the previous year. This increase was mainly driven by higher shipments to key markets such as Mexico, Japan, Colombia and South Korea. These increases helped offset a significant decline of 80% in exports to China, resulting from increasing competition from other global suppliers.
Value of top three U.S. corn export markets in 2024:
Mexico: US$ 5.6 billion
Japan: US$ 2.8 billion
Colombia: US$ 1.6 billion
Wheat
U.S. wheat exports to all global buyers in 2024 fell by 2% to $5.9B, according to Census data. This decline was mainly due to increasing pressure from cheaper Russian supplies. As a result, the United States faced competitive challenges in the international market, reinforcing the need for more effective strategies to maintain its share.
Value of top three U.S. wheat export markets in 2024:
Mexico: US$ 1.05 billion
Philippines: US$ 735.7 million
Japan: US$ 582.8 million
Beef
The United States exported nearly $10.5 billion worth of beef and beef products in 2024, according to Census data, up $51.3 billion from 2023, as tight domestic supplies pushed up beef prices.
Value of the top three U.S. beef export markets in 2024:
South Korea: US$ 2.2 billion
Japan: US$ 1.9 billion
China: US$ 1.6 billion
Pork
U.S. exports of pork and pork products totaled more than $8.6 billion in 2024, according to Census data. This represents an increase of $61.3 billion from the previous year. This is largely due to the fact that, with rising beef prices, many consumers began to seek more affordable alternatives. In addition, the reduction in domestic pork supply contributed to boosting exports. Therefore, economic and market factors aligned to strengthen the sector's performance on the international stage.
Value of top three U.S. pork export markets in 2024:
Mexico: US$ 2.6 billion
Japan: US$ 1.4 billion
China: US$ 1.1 billion
US Agricultural Imports
The U.S. will import a record $214.1 billion in agricultural products from suppliers around the world in 2024, up $91.3 billion from the previous year, according to Census data.
Top agricultural products imported by the US in 2024, by value:
The main agri-food products traded cover a wide variety of categories, with bakery items, pasta and cereals standing out, leading with a value of US$14.9 billion. Next, processed fruit and vegetable products generated US$13.6 billion, while fresh vegetables reached US$13.4 billion, a value equivalent to that of fresh fruits and berries. Vegetable oils also performed strongly, totaling US$12.6 billion. Among proteins, beef products totaled US$11.7 billion. Coffee, traditionally valued on the international market, reached US$6.6 billion. Sugars and sweeteners, as well as dairy products, generated US$5.4 billion each, and the chocolate and cocoa derivatives segment completed the list with US$4.8 billion.
Source: Karl Plume and Stephen Coates | Notícias Agrícolas
