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Discussions have been going on for a few months about the potential occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon in the year 2023. However, the point in question at this moment no longer lies in the “when”, but rather in the “how”. According to updates from the Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Center) and NOAA (American Center), more and more signals in the atmosphere represent El Niño conditions.
At the end of May, the behavior of rainfall and temperatures in Brazil showed signs of an El Niño pattern. With above-average rainfall in the extreme south, while the volumes recorded were below average in the north.
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In the weekly monitoring of sea surface temperature anomalies in the region where El Niño is determined, the values reach +0.8°C. According to the Australian center's criteria, if the value is sustained throughout the month, it can be said that it is the beginning of El Nino. It is worth mentioning that NOAA considers a different methodology – more conservative – where temperatures should persist +0.5°C above average for three months.
In addition to this monitoring on the surface, since mid-March temperatures below sea level have been above average up to at least 250 m deep. This is also a reinforcement of the imminence of the El Niño event and how quickly we are moving through the neutrality transition.
But after all, how will this event act?
We must base ourselves on what the projections are signaling. However, what draws attention to the formation of this event is how quickly the transition has been happening, going from a 3-year La Niña to an El Niño event in just a few months.
It is still early and speculative to confirm the intensity and duration of the event. However, based on the computer simulation scenarios and what the reference centers are indicating, we will have a potentially strong El Niño in the summer (temperatures +1.5°C above average), advancing to the year 2024.
Source: Aline Merladete | agrolink
