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Analysts consulted by the Central Bank once again raised their estimates for inflation this year and next, but left the accounts for 2025 and 2026 unchanged, according to the Focus survey released this Monday.
The survey, which captures the market's perception of economic indicators, showed that the expectation for the IPCA to rise this year rose by 0.02 percentage points and, for the next year, by 0.01 points, respectively to 5.98% and 4.14% .
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The IBGE releases IPCA data for March on Tuesday, with expectations in a Reuters survey of an increase of 0.77% in the monthly comparison and 4.70% in 12 months.
The center of the official target for inflation in 2023 is 3.25% and for 2024 it is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.
For the following two years, however, projections for an increase in the IPCA remained at 4.0% each. The de-anchoring of inflation expectations has been a point of attention, with the BC warning that a more persistent and prolonged de-anchoring greatly increases the cost of reducing inflation.
Focus also showed that there was no change in the scenario for the basic interest rate, with the Selic still calculated at 12.75% at the end of this year and at 10.0% in 2024. For the BC's next monetary policy meeting, in May, the rate is still expected to remain at 13.75%.
For Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the growth estimate in the weekly survey of a hundred economists rose to 0.91% in 2023, from 0.90% before, while for 2024 it fell to 1.44%, from 1.48% before.
See below the main market projections for the Brazilian economy, according to the BC's weekly survey of around 100 financial institutions:
IPCA (%) 5.96 5.98 4.13 4.14
GDP (%) 0.90 0.91 1.48 1.44
Dollar (end of period-R$) 5.25 5.25 5.30 5.27
Selic (end of period-% aa) 12.75 12.75 10.00 10.00
Administered prices (%) 9.65 9.79 4.40 4.50
Current account (US$ bi) -50.84 -50.84 -52.50 -52.50
Trade balance (US$ bi) 55.00 55.00 52.44 52.44
IDP (US$ bi) 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00
Public net debt (%/GDP) 61.15 61.15 64.50 64.50
Source: Notícias Agrícolas
