Image: Pixabay
U.S. farmers last fall planted their largest acreage of winter wheat in 8 years, but many of those added acres are in poor condition due to drought, potentially minimizing the impact of the increased seeding on production.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday estimated 28% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition. This compares to 34% in late November and 30% in early April 2022.
{module Form RD}
About 36% of US winter wheat is classified as poor or very poor, up from 26% in late November and the same as the same date a year ago. This is the worst early April ranking since 1996.
The USDA on Friday estimated U.S. winter wheat acreage for the 2023 crop at an eight-year high of 37.5 million acres, up from 33.3 million last year, driven by high wheat prices. last fall.
This should, in theory, help lift domestic wheat stocks, which were at 15-year lows on March 1.
But conditions in some key states, where acres are growing year to year, are concerning. Drought has reduced winter wheat production in 2022, and although the drought is less widespread now than it was a year ago, it has intensified in the southern Plains, focused on hard red winter wheat (HRW).
CONDITIONS
Only 16% of winter wheat in Kansas, which produces a quarter of the nation's winter wheat, is considered good to excellent compared to 32% a year ago, 41% average for the date and 21% in late November. A whopping 57% of Kansas wheat is poor or very poor, versus 30% a year ago.
Good to excellent winter wheat conditions in nearby durum wheat producers in Oklahoma, Texas and Colorado are better than they were a year ago, but are between 14 and 24 percentage points below average.
Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Texas together accounted for two-thirds of the 4.2 million acre increase in winter wheat plantings over last year, despite normally accounting for 43% of production.
Winter wheat in the Northwest, including Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana, should also be monitored as the good to excellent rating has dropped between 20 and 26 percentage points since late November. Ratings in all four states are well below average, although Montana and Oregon are in better shape than they were a year ago.
These four Northwest states account for 24% of U.S. winter wheat production, but unlike the southern Plains, the Northwest lost acres of wheat compared to last year. The Northwest leads in the production of white wheat.
The health of soft red winter wheat (SRW) is more encouraging, as good to excellent condition in many of these states is higher than a year ago and near or above the five-year average.
Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri and Indiana added nearly 1 million acres of winter wheat over last year, and these states account for 13% of total winter production.
PANORAMA
Favorable spring rain makes or breaks a winter wheat crop, but the next few weeks are expected to remain dry in the heart of durum wheat country, including western Kansas.
In at least the last 37 years, U.S. winter wheat yields have never been above average if early April conditions are below 40% in good to excellent.
Years in which early April conditions were close to this year's good to excellent 28% generally resulted in winter wheat production about 10% below long-term trend.
Source: Karen Braun | Notícias Agrícolas
