Forecast is 1.9% higher than last month.
The second forecast for the national production of grains, cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2023 predicts a record harvest of 293.6 million tons, an increase of 11.8% (or 30.9 million tons more) compared to 2022.
The November estimate for the 2022 harvest reached 262.7 million tons, 3.7% higher than that obtained in 2021 (253.2 million tons), an increase of 9.4 million tons. The area to be harvested was 73.2 million hectares, an increase of 4.7 million hectares (6.8%) compared to the area harvested in 2021. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which, together, represent 91.5% of the production estimate and account for 87% of the area to be harvested.
In relation to 2021, there were increases of 10.2% in the corn area (increases of 6.6% in 1st harvest corn and 11.4% in 2nd harvest corn); of 17.9% in herbaceous cotton (seed), 4.8% in soybeans, 11.8 in wheat and a drop of 3.2% in the rice area.
As for production, there were increases of 15.2% for herbaceous cotton (seed), 22.3% for wheat and 25.5% for corn, with a drop of 1.0% for corn in the 1st harvest and an increase of 36 .4% in corn in the 2nd harvest. There were drops of 11.4% for soybeans and 8.2% for paddy rice.
In November 2022, IBGE carried out the second area and production forecast for the 2023 harvest. The Brazilian harvest of grains, cereals and legumes in 2023 should total 293.6 million tons, an increase of 11.8% in relation to 2022, or 30.9 million tons.
This increase is due to the higher forecast for soybeans (22.5% or 26,866,714 tons), corn 1st harvest (15.8% or 4,022,128 tons), corn 2nd harvest (1.9% or 1,596,689 tons) , herbaceous seed cotton (0.8% or 31,682 tons), sorghum (4.5% or 127,774 tons) and 1st harvest beans (4.2% or 45,884 tons). Declines in production were estimated for rice (-3.1% or -332,552 tons), 2nd harvest beans (-10.4% or -139,148 tons), 3rd harvest beans (-1.0% or -6,542 tons) and wheat (- 12.0% or -1,145,356 tons). In relation to the first estimate, the growth was 1.9%, or 5.5 million tons.
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There were positive variations in the area forecast for soybeans (3.7%), 2nd harvest beans (0.7%), herbaceous cotton (0.1%) and 2nd harvest corn (1.3%), and negative variations for paddy rice (- 4.0%), sorghum (-1.4%), 1st harvest beans (-1.8%), 3rd harvest beans (-1.1%) and wheat (-2.4%).
This 2nd estimate for the harvest to be harvested in 2023 is subject to correction in the next survey, in December, and during the monitoring of harvests throughout 2023.
Harvest 2022 should reach 262.7 million tons, with an increase of 3.7%
The November estimate for the 2022 harvest reached 262.7 million tons, 3.7% higher than that of 2021 (253.2 million tons), an increase of 9.4 million tons.
For soybeans, the production estimate was 119.5 million tons. As for corn, the estimate was 110.1 million tons (25.4 million tons of corn in the 1st harvest and 84.7 million tons of corn in the 2nd harvest). Rice production was estimated at 10.7 million tons; that of wheat at 9.6 million tons; and cotton (seed), at 6.7 million tons.
In relation to the previous month, there were increases in production estimates for potato 2nd harvest (4.3% or 53,076 t), sugar cane (4.1% or 24,568,533 t), beans 2nd harvest (2.8% or 37,207 t), sorghum (2.0% or 57,045 t), tomatoes (1.1% or 43,078 t), beans 3rd harvest (0.2% or 1,222 t), corn 1st harvest (0.2% or 40,443 t) and soybeans (0.1% or 78,405 t). On the other hand, there were declines in barley (-6.7% or -35,834 t), potato 3rd harvest (-1.5% or -16,400 t), beans 1st harvest (-0.7% or -7,760 t), corn 2nd harvest (-0.3% or -258,965 t), 1st harvest potatoes (-0.3% or -4,892 t), wheat (-0.2% or -22,781 t) and oats (-0.0% or -280 t).
Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West, 130.7 million tons (49.7%); South, 65.2 million tons (24.8%); Southeast, 27.8 million tons (10.6%); Northeast, 25.4 million tons (9.7%) and North, 13.5 million tons (5.2%).
The main positive variations in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Santa Catarina (402,656 t), in São Paulo (189,602 t), in Sergipe (138,837 t), in Goiás (31,480 t), in Rio Grande do North (4,108 t) and Espírito Santo (1,046 t). The main negative variations occurred in Rondônia (-502,409 t), in Paraná (-232,245 t), in Pará (-50,168 t), in Alagoas (-39,289 t), in Piauí (-29,259 t), in Paraíba (-14,668 t), in Ceará (-9.319 t) and in Mato Grosso do Sul (-1,015 t).
ENGLISH POTATO – The 11th estimate of potato production, considering the three harvests of the product, was 4.0 million tons, an increase of 0.8% in relation to the month of October. There was a positive highlight for São Paulo, with a growth of 4.3% in production, while in Santa Catarina, there was a decline of 5.0%.
The 1st harvest, which should contribute 41.9% of the total potatoes to be produced in the year, shows a decline of 0.3% compared to the previous month. Production was estimated at 1.7 million tons. Compared to 2021, the production estimate was 8.5% lower, following a reduction of 4.7% in average yield and 4.0% in the area to be harvested.
The 2nd harvest, which represents 31.7% of total production, was estimated at 1.3 million tons, 4.3% higher than the October estimate. The production estimate for the 3rd harvest was 1.1 million tons, a decline of 1.5% compared to the previous month. In relation to 2021, there were increases of 3.6% in the production estimate.
SUGAR CANE – Brazilian sugarcane production was estimated at 627.1 million tons, an increase of 4.1% compared to the previous month. The average sugarcane yield increased by 1.5%, reaching 71,056 kg/ha on the national average, as did the harvested area, which increased by 2.6%, reaching 8.8 million hectares.
São Paulo, responsible for 322.8 million tons (51.5% of national production), had an increase of 8.5% in production, with an increase of 5.3% in the planted area and 3.0% in productivity.
In the Northeast Region, there is a reduction of 1.4% in the monthly production estimate, which reached 53.6 million tons. There were negative revaluations of production in Maranhão (-2.2%), Piauí (-0.1%), Rio Grande do Norte (-20.7%) and Ceará (-11.1%). Paraíba showed growth of 2.3%, reaching a production of 5.9 million tons.
WINTER CEREALS (grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. The estimate for wheat production was 9.6 million tons, a decline of 0.2% in relation to the previous month and an increase of 22.3% in relation to 2021, with the average yield expected to reach 3,077 kg/ha, an increase of 9 ,4%. If this production is confirmed, Brazil should harvest its largest wheat harvest in history. The South Region should account for 90.2% of national wheat production in 2022.
The estimated production of oats was 1.2 million tons, an increase of 10.31 TP3T compared to 2021. The main producers of the cereal are Rio Grande do Sul, with 875.1 thousand tons, Paraná, with 233.3 thousand tons and Santa Catarina, with 37,836 tons, with the South Region accounting for 97.5% of the total to be produced in the country in 2022.
For barley, the estimated production was 502.5 thousand tons, a decline of 6.71 TP3T compared to the previous month and an increase of 15.11 TP3T compared to 2021. The largest producers of the cereal are Paraná, with 344.2 thousand tons and Rio Grande do Sul, with 141.6 thousand tons, whose combined production represents 96.7% of the national total.
BEANS (in grain) – The estimated production of beans, considering the three harvests, was 3.1 million tons, 1.0% higher than the previous month. In this assessment, the Federation Units with the greatest participation in the harvest production estimate were Paraná (24.5%), Minas Gerais (15.4%), Goiás (11.2%) and Mato Grosso (8.8%). In relation to the annual variation, the production estimate increased by 11.3%. This production volume should meet the consumption of the country's domestic market in 2022.
The 1st bean harvest was estimated at 1.1 million tons, a decline of 0.7% compared to the October estimate. There was growth in production in Rio Grande do Norte (6.5%) and Santa Catarina (7.8%), however, declines in Rondônia (-13.0%), Piauí (-6.0%), Paraíba (-19.4% ) and São Paulo (-0.8%). This 1st harvest represents 35.1% of the total beans produced in the country. In relation to the previous year, there were declines of 6.2% in production.
The 2nd bean harvest was estimated at 1.3 million tons, an increase of 2.8% compared to the October estimate. This 2nd harvest represents 43.5% of the total beans produced in the country. In Santa Catarina, production was revised to 92.4 thousand tons, an increase of 99.1% in the month. In Paraná, responsible for 41.7% of the total harvested by the country at that time, production was maintained in November, compared to October. In relation to 2021, there was an increase of 95.9% in the production of this harvest.
Regarding the 3rd bean harvest, the production estimate was 659.4 thousand tons, an increase of 0.2% compared to the October estimate. Of the nine states with information for the 3rd bean harvest, only São Paulo updated its numbers, with a forecast of 0.8% increase in production estimates in relation to October. This harvest represents 21.3% of the total beans produced in the country. In relation to the previous year, production estimates should increase by 10.5%.
CORN (grain) – The estimate for corn production was 110.1 million tons, a drop of 0.2% compared to the previous month. High prices encouraged cultivation, despite the high cost of production. In relation to 2021, there was an increase of 25.5% in production.
For corn 1st harvest, production was maintained at 25.4 million tons compared to the previous month, showing a slight increase of 0.2%. In relation to the same period in 2021, although the harvested area grew by 6.6%, the decrease of 1.0% in the production of 1st harvest corn continued, justified by the drop of 7.1% in the average yield. The adverse climate, notably in the Center-South, where there was a lack of rain and high temperatures, was responsible for this reduction in productivity.
For corn 2nd harvest, production was 84.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% in relation to the previous month. Compared to the previous month, there were declines in production in Rondônia, 23.1% or 425.4 thousand tons; in Pará, 8.9% or 68.4 thousand tons, in Alagoas, 26.6% or 21.2 thousand tons and in Piauí, 0.2% or 1.1 thousand tons, which was partially offset by the growth in production in Sergipe, 18.4% or 138.2 thousand tons and from São Paulo, 4.3% or 90.9 thousand tons.
Compared to the same period in 2021, production grew by 36.4%. In 2022, the climate was favorable for 2nd harvest crops, with more rain occurring in the main producing Units of the Federation, unlike in 2021, when there were severe droughts.
SOY (beans) – National production reached 119.5 million tons, an increase of 0.1% compared to the previous month, confirming the decrease of 11.4% compared to that obtained in the previous year. The prolonged drought in the Center-South region of the country was decisive for the reduction in soybean production in 2022, resulting in a decline of 15.5% in average yield, despite the growth in harvested area, at 4.8% in the year, totaling 40, 9 million hectares. The share of soybeans in the total volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country, in 2022, was 45.6%, remaining the grain with the largest weight in the group.
With the 2022 harvest already completed in the country, the Federation Units that still presented monthly revaluations were Santa Catarina and Alagoas, with increases of 7.0% and 6.8%, respectively. There were declines in Rondônia (-3.4%) and Piauí (-0.1%). Mato Grosso, the largest soybean producer in Brazil, maintained the previous month's production estimate, 38.0 million tons, 6.6% higher than that obtained in 2021.
SORGHUM (grain) – The production estimate in November was 2.9 million tons, an increase of 2.0% compared to the previous month. The Central-West Region, the largest producer of this grain, with 52.2% of participation in national production, had its estimate increased by 0.2%, leveraged by the increases in the quantity produced and in the average yield recorded in Goiás, which were more than enough to compensate for the reduction in harvested area. Goiás is the largest national producer of sorghum, being responsible for 35.8% of national production.
In the Southeast, responsible for 33.2% of participation, there was an increase of 23.0% in production in São Paulo, driven by the expansion of area, despite the reduction in average yield. In Minas Gerais, which is the second largest producer of sorghum, with a share of 23.0% in the national total, estimates of area, production and average yield remained constant. The expected production is 658.4 thousand tons.
*With information from IBGE
Source: Seane Lennon | agrolink
