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The IGC projects 14 million tonnes of flour trade this year, which is 1.1 million tonnes below the five-year average and just slightly above the most recent low of 13.8 million tonnes in 2020-21. If realized, it would be the second lowest wheat flour trade total since 2013-14, when 13.1 million tonnes were traded.
Linked to tighter wheat supplies, purchases by Iraq, the world's biggest flour buyer, are expected to increase, with total arrivals pegged at a five-year high of 2.7 million tonnes (up from 2.2 million last year), unchanged from the previous estimate in July.
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A slight recovery in deliveries to Afghanistan is also forecast in 2022-23, to 1.8 million tonnes, up from 1.7 million in 2021-22. Imports from Sub-Saharan Africa could be the lowest in 12 years, forecast at 1.9 million tonnes, down 350,000 tonnes from last year, as local consumers switch to alternatives amid potentially high prices for plant-based foods. wheat.
Quarterly import forecast revisions included a cut for China, where full-year arrivals are now below the average of 200,000 tonnes but still above the previous season's low of 100,000.
“While the downgrade partly reflects relatively slow purchases to date amid local COVID-19-related measures, the analysis is complicated by the absence of official trade statistics for Russia, normally a major supplier of flour to that country,” it said. the IGC.
By: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink
