Corn rises sharply in Chicago, driven by tension in the Black Sea and possible cut in the US harvest


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The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CBOT) for corn closed the session this past Monday (10/11) with prices rising sharply. The market was supported by concerns that the worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt grain shipments from the Black Sea region. Wheat rose 6.56%, which helped boost cereal prices.

The possibility that the North American supply and demand report for October from the United States Department of Agriculture, which comes out this Wednesday (12), could indicate a cut in the country's harvest also influenced the positive scenario.

Analysts consulted by international agencies are betting on a production of 13.891 billion bushels of corn in 2022/23, below the 13.944 billion bushels indicated in September and below the 15.115 billion bushels recorded in the 2021/22 harvest. Average productivity is expected to reach 171.9 bushels per acre, lower than the yield indicated in September, of 172.5 bushels per acre and also below the yield recorded in the 2021/22 harvest, of 177 bushels per acre.

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The USDA should indicate the projection of harvested area in the United States at 80.8 million acres, unchanged from last month. Final carryover stocks for the 2022/23 North American harvest are expected to be indicated at 1.127 billion bushels, compared to the 1.219 billion bushels indicated last month.

For the 2022/23 global harvest, final carryover stocks should be indicated at 301.6 million tonnes, against the 304.5 million tonnes indicated in September. The forecast is that the final carryover stocks for the 2021/22 world harvest will be set at 307.7 million tons, below the 312.1 million tons indicated last month.

In the session, corn contracts for December delivery closed at US$ 6.98 1/4 per bushel, a gain of 15.00 cents, or 2.19%, from the previous close. The March position closed the session at US$ 7.04 3/4 per bushel, up 13.75 cents, or 1.98% from the previous close.

By: Lessandro Carvalho | CROP & MARKET 

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