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In 2021, exports of the soybean complex (grain, bran and oil) from Brazil totaled around 48 billion dollars.
For the year 2022, Brazil's main export sector is expected to increase revenues from foreign sales by 10 billion dollars compared to 2021, to a historic high of around 58 billion dollars, according to Abiove's forecast, which was maintained in line with expectations of August.
The rise in soybean, bran and oil prices is more than compensating for a reduction in the volume of grain exports, which in turn were affected by a decline in the Brazilian harvest and also lower demand from China, the main global importer of the oilseed. .
International prices rose after a failed harvest in Brazil, the largest producer and exporter of soybeans, and other factors, such as restrictions on shipments of palm oil in Indonesia and sunflower oil in Ukraine.
The average price of soybean oil exported by Brazil was estimated at US$1,600 per ton this year, versus US$1,222/tonne in 2021, while the values of grain and bran are also expected to grow this year.
PROJECTION REVIEW
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After a reassessment of the figures for the last Brazilian soybean harvest, the industry association Abiove slightly raised its projections for exports and processing of the oilseed in Brazil this Wednesday.
Brazil's harvest, already closed a few months ago, was estimated at 126.9 million tons, just 300 thousand tons above the August forecast.
Still, it will be far from last season's record of 138.8 million tons.
Brazilian soybean exports are also expected to be 200,000 tons higher than predicted last month, now estimated at 77 million tons, against a historic 86.1 million in 2021, when the large harvest allowed for greater shipments.
On the other hand, after good processing margins earlier this year, the industry will process a record 48.9 million tons, 0.6% above the August projection, versus 47.78 million in 2021.
The most recent boost in processing came from greater demand for soybean meal in exports, which is expected to total 18.7 million tons this year – an annual increase of 1.5 million tons –, while the forecast of oil shipments abroad was maintained at 2.15 million tons, the highest level since 2008, with a purchasing impulse from India.
Between January and August this year, Brazilian soybean exports reached 66.6 million tons (-8.3%), while bran exports grew by 21.7% in volume in the annual comparison, to 14.1 millions of tons. As for soybean oil, the increase was 62.7%, reaching 1.7 million tons.
By: Roberto Samora | Reuters
