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For 2023, the market maintained last week's inflation expectation of 3.4%. In 2024, the forecast is also the same as last week.
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The Focus bulletin gathers the market's projections for the country's main economic indicators. In this week's estimate, Focus indicates the same variation in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded seven days ago, of 0.29%. Four weeks ago, the market predicted growth in the Brazilian economy of 0.42%.
The bulletin also records a decrease in the GDP growth expectation for 2023, falling from 1.75% last week to 1.69%. For 2024, the projection remained stable, at 2%.
Interest rate and exchange rate
The market forecast for the basic interest rate, the Selic, in 2022, also remained stable in relation to that released last week, 11.75% per year. Four weeks ago, the projection was that the Selic would close 2022 at 11.5% per year.
The rate, set by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), is currently at 9.25% per year. At the body's next meeting in February, Copom has already signaled that it should raise the Selic rate by another 1.5 percentage points.
By the end of 2023, the base rate is estimated to fall to 8% per year, the same as last week. For 2024, the forecast for the Selic is 7% per year, the same rate as the previous week.
The market's expectation for the dollar exchange rate in 2022 also remained the same as projected last week, R$ 5.60. Next year, the projection is for an increase in the exchange rate. For 2023, the forecast for the dollar exchange rate rose from R$ 5.46 to R$ 5.50 and, for 2024, it remained stable at R$ 5.40.
Clipping: agrolink | Source: Brazil Agency
