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The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) reviewed the information and projections of the soybean complex for 2021 and 2022. The entity's estimates for 2021, which take into account the analyzes of its members' market intelligence teams, have undergone adjustments. Production grew by 300 thousand tons when compared to the previous estimate, to 138.3 million tons, reflecting productivity gains.
Regarding soybean oil, estimated exports for this year also increased. For the domestic market, Abiove slightly increased the projected consumption of oil for food purposes, accompanied, however, by a significant decrease in the volume destined for biodiesel production. As a result, domestic demand is estimated at 8.2 million tons, a decrease of 2% compared to the previous projection.
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For 2022, Abiove estimates a new and more intense reduction in domestic consumption of soybean oil, to less than 8.0 million tons. This volume falls short of the value recorded in 2020 (8.5 million tons) and that expected for 2021 (8.2 million tons).
The decline is due, once again, to the lower need for raw material for biodiesel production in the country, simultaneously with the stability of consumption for food purposes, and results in the inevitable redirection of a significant part of national production to export, now projected by 1.6 million tons.
Abiove also revised its estimate for fresh soybean production in 2022 to 144.8 million tons, resulting in greater exports (record 93.4 million tons) and carryover stocks.
Crushing, projected at 48 million tons, is growing, but at much lower rates than those expected for other variables. Specifically, the entity's projections for 2022 in relation to 2021 point to an annual increase of 5% in grain production, 9% in exports, 5% in its stock and 3% in processing. The possibility of reducing the processing estimate cannot be ruled out, given transit stocks, especially for bran, and depending on the evolution of international market fundamentals.
Similar to soybeans, ABIOVE also projects record exports of bran, mainly influenced by promising sales prospects for Southeast Asian countries. The estimate for domestic consumption of soybean meal will reach 18.1 million tons in 2022, higher than the volumes of 2019 and 2021, but still below that observed in 2020, when it reached 18.9 million tons.
Imported volumes will be minimal, meeting residual needs and, therefore, signaling the full capacity of the soybean production chain in Brazil to meet both domestic and export needs.
Source: DATA
