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The corn market on São Paulo's B3 Exchange closed higher again last Friday, April 9, with the exception of November, which closed sharply lower at R$ 4.33/bag. As a result, the May price closed up R$ 0.65 for the day and R$ 3.08 for the week at R$ 100.51; July's advanced R$ 0.64 on the day and R$ 3.23 on the week to R$ 95.85 and September's advanced R$ 0.33 on the day and R$ 3.26 on the week to R$ 89.98.
According to TF Agroeconomic Consulting, the market is confirming the shortage that we have been talking about since the end of last year, completely ignoring the monthly Conab (National Supply Company) report. “Today we learned first-hand that JBS is starting to import corn from Argentina, which confirms not only the scarcity, but the possibility of price increases”, point out market analysts.
JBS contacted Agrolink and denied the information that it was purchasing corn from Argentina.
“As there are still two months left before the start of the harvest and availability of our Safrinha, it is possible that prices will rise even further, although using caution, given the high levels they are at”, they add. Check out the set of factors that predict high prices for the 2021 harvest, with good profits for farmers:
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HIGH FACTORS
*Current Brazilian shortage, confirmed by the import of Argentine corn this Friday;
*Climate problems in Brazil due to planting 30% in the second season outside the appropriate window, which could reduce production;
*High dollar, contributes to the likelihood of an increase in Brazilian corn exports, reducing domestic availability;
*Strong reduction in stocks in the USA could lead to an increase in Brazilian exports, a reduction in domestic availability and the maintenance of high and very profitable prices for farmers also in the 2021 harvest;
DOWN FACTORS
* None in the short term;
* In the long term, slight pressure on prices during the Safrinha harvest, but this should not take away from the good profitability of corn in the 2021 harvest.
By: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink
