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The high dollar against the real has helped to keep soybean prices sustained in the Brazilian market. In ports, references still vary between R$ 175.00 and R$ 179.00 per bag, giving chances between R$ 181.00 and R$ 182.00 when looking at the August position, as explained by market consultant Vlamir Brandalizze, from Brandalizze Consulting.
Not only is the 2020/21 soybean well priced, but the 2021/22 harvest is also already signaling good indicators, according to Brandalizze, who reports references between R$ 155.00 and R$ 158.00.
“And there is little selling pressure. Sellers are waiting to position themselves at higher levels, the market at the moment is for few future harvest deals. The producer has made some changes, but at a slightly slower pace in sales of soybeans from the new harvest”, explains the consultant.
In the interior, some markets also registered appreciation, mainly respecting their regional supply and demand realities, while others felt stronger pressure from Chicago, where oilseed futures ended the day with losses of almost 30 points in the main contracts.
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MARKET IN CHICAGO
May lost 26.25 points to end the day at US$ 13.66 and August at US$ 13.15 per bushel. The soybean market on the Chicago Stock Exchange, once again, is being poisoned by the drop in soybean oil prices, which are operating at the low limit this Tuesday afternoon.
Derivative futures traded on the CBOT ended the session losing almost 5% and severely pressured grain prices.
“Last week, the movement in realization (of oil) was due to rumors of imports of Argentine soybean oil from the USA. The import bill continues to make sense, since the American domestic basis is at historic highs, an increase caused by the strong tightening of American domestic stocks”, explains Agrinvest Commodities.
In addition to the pressure from derivatives, as soybean meal also operates on the negative side of the table, the market also remains on the defensive and positioning itself before the release of new bulletins from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) this Wednesday ( 31).
The most anticipated report is the one with area projections, which indicate an increase in relation to the previous harvest. However, the expected area should be smaller than what was reported in the USDA Outlook Forum in February.
If the numbers confirm market expectations, the North American corn area in the 2021/22 harvest could be 2.6% larger, 8.3% in the case of soybeans and 1.3% in the case of wheat.
Furthermore, the weather conditions in the Corn Belt have shown improvement and also help to weigh on the market, as Vlamir Brandalizze explains. “Temperatures are rising, they are already positive and few areas have temperatures below zero in the morning and, as a result, the soil is warming up, favoring the start of planting in the Midwest”, says the consultant.
Field work has already started in some states, still timidly, but already marking the beginning of the 2021/22 harvest.
By: Carla Mendes| Agricultural News
