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The Brazilian soybean market should remain slow at the beginning of the week, with nominal prices and regionalized behavior. Chicago is trying to recover from recent heavy losses, while the exchange rate is falling. The holiday in São Paulo and the producers' option to focus attention on the beginning of the harvest should limit movement.
With Chicago and the dollar in opposite directions and with consistent fluctuations, the Brazilian soybean market stalled and had regionalized prices at nominal levels on Friday. With Chicago deepening its losses in the afternoon and the dollar increasing sharply, companies exited the market.
In Passo Fundo (RS), a 60-kilo bag rose from R$ 164.00 to R$ 164.50. In the Missões region, the price was R$ 164.00. At the port of Rio Grande, the price increased from R$ 165.00 to R$ 166.00.
In Cascavel, Paraná, the price went from R$ 167.00 to R$ 163.00 per bag. At the port of Paranaguá (PR), the bag fell from R$ 166.00 to R$ 164.00 per bag.
In Rondonópolis (MT), the bag stabilized at R$ 151.00. In Dourados (MS), the price increased from R$ 155.00 to R$ 158.00 per bag. In Rio Verde (GO), the bag remained at R$ 160.00.
CHICAGO
* Contracts expiring in March operate at an increase of 0.22%, quoted at US$ 13.14 3/4 per bushel.
* The market registered losses earlier, pressured by rains beneficial to crops in South America. However, it reacted and established itself in positive territory, seeking a recovery from the heavy losses of the previous session.
PRIZES
* The premium in Paranaguá for February was 60 to 82 points above Chicago. For March, the premium is 51 to 55 points higher.
EXCHANGE
* The commercial dollar operates with a devaluation of 0.85%, quoted at R$ 5.430.
FINANCIAL INDICATORS
* The main Asian stock exchanges ended higher. Shanghai, +0.48%. Tokyo, +0.67%.
* The main stock exchanges in Europe operate lower. Paris, -0.32%; and London, -0.49%.
* Oil is on the rise. March WTI in NY: US$ 52.44 a barrel (+0.30%).
* The Dollar Index registers an increase of 0.05%, at 90.28 points.
SCHEDULE
– US Weekly Export Inspections – USDA, 1pm.
– Results of the Brazilian trade balance in the first three weeks of January – Ministry of Economy, 3pm.
Tuesday (26/01)
– United Kingdom: The unemployment rate for the quarter to November will be published at 4am by the statistics department.
– Release of the minutes of the last Copom meeting – BC, 8 am.
– IPCA-15 January – IBGE, 9am.
– Data on the development of crops in Paraná – Deral, in the morning.
Wednesday (27/01)
– The position of US oil stocks up to Friday last week will be published at 12:30 pm by the Department of Energy (DoE).
– USA: The January monetary policy decision will be published at 4 pm by the Federal Reserve.
Thursday (28/01)
– Germany: The preliminary reading of the consumer price index for January will be published at 10 am by Destatis.
– January IGP-M – FGV, 8am.
– USA: The preliminary reading of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2019 will be published at 10:30 am by the Department of Commerce.
– US weekly grain exports – USDA, 10:30 am.
– Data on the development of Argentine crops – Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 3pm.
– Data from crops in Rio Grande do Sul – Emater, in the afternoon.
Friday (29/01)
– Japan: The unemployment rate for December will be published the night before by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication.
– Japan: The preliminary reading of industrial production for December will be published the night before by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
– Germany: The preliminary reading of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2020 will be published at 4 am by Destatis.
– Germany: The unemployment rate for January will be published at 6 am by the federal employment agency.
– December IPP – IBGE, 9am
– Data on the development of crops in Argentina – Ministry of Agriculture, at the beginning of the day.
– Estimate for the Brazilian soybean harvest in 2020/21 – SAFRAS & Mercado, 12pm.
– Crop development data from Mato Grosso – IMEA, in the afternoon.
By Dylan Della Pasqua (dylan@safras.com.br) / SAFRAS Agency
