The prices of raw materials for mills, not just wheat, but all other inputs, rose a lot this year and these increases seem to be here to stay. This is what the team of analysts at TF Agroeconomic points out, which also projects inflation in flour prices, “under penalty of collapse”.
“At least with regard to wheat, the prospects are for firm prices for the entire commercial year, so that buyers can give up the discourse that 'prices will fall during the harvest'”, explain the experts. This is because exactly the opposite is happening, the prices of the old crop have already exceeded both in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, and there is a great chance of continuing to rise as soon as national wheat runs out, with the mills starting to supply themselves with imported wheat, whose prices are above R$ 1,700.00/tonne CIF.
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“So, we say again that, even if your average wheat purchase price is lower, administrative prudence dictates that your calculations to establish the price of flour be made based on replacement costs and not the previous purchase price. And these are considerably higher and tend to rise from now on, even though, in the short term, there may be a period in which prices stabilize”, analysts recommend.
“We believe that national harvest stocks, with rare exceptions, should not exceed the month of February, at the beginning of March at the latest, after which, prices will be governed by the average of imported prices, which are already above R$ 1,700.00 /ton CIF”, concludes the TF.
Source: agrolink
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