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Porto Alegre, December 23, 2020 – The Brazilian rice market cannot complain about the year 2020. Despite the current accommodation in prices, the year was extremely positive, with an accumulated increase close to 100% for a bag of paddy rice in Rio Grande do Sul, the main national reference.
Cereal was one of the main beneficiaries of the new coronavirus. Since the pandemic was declared in mid-March, there has been a rush by the population to supermarkets, wanting to stock up on the Brazilian staple.
Also as a result of Covid-19, there was a spike in the dollar against the real, amid fears generated in economies around the world. As a result, Brazilian rice became competitive on the international market and exports gained strength, depleting domestic stocks. Furthermore, the rising US currency made imports difficult, which would be necessary in a harvest with tight supply.
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In the 2019/20 season, between March and August, Brazil had exported 664 thousand tons of husk rice and imported 586 thousand tons. “In 2020/21, between March and August, 1.311 million tons were exported and imports were 440 thousand tons”, recalls SAFRAS & Mercado analyst, Gabriel Viana.
In this context, the average of a 50-kilo bag from Rio Grande do Sul surpassed the barrier of R$ 105.00. Even with the withdrawal of the TEC for the import of 400 thousand tons until December, the cereal continued to seek support from international prices and the high dollar.
Only now at the end of the year, when the dollar began to lose strength against the real, did the price of rice seek accommodation, as imports became more affordable. Thus, a 50-kilo bag was worth R$ 95.50 on December 22, with a drop of 9.39% compared to the same period in November. In comparison with the same moment in 2019, there was still an increase of 98.22%.
Per Rodrigo Ramos (rodrigo@safras.com.br) / SAFRAS Agency
