According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' Semiannual Report on Global Food Markets, in China, the spread of African Swine Fever is largely behind a predicted 20% drop in pork production to 35 million of tons, after the decrease of 21% already recorded in 2019.
With a series of policies launched by the government to rescue the sector, pig farming companies have adopted advanced biosecurity measures. ASF outbreaks are also behind projected declines in Vietnam and the Philippines, while a smaller pig herd is expected to reduce production in Ukraine.
In the US, the negative production outlook is mainly related to COVID-19 market disruptions
On the other hand, moderate production increases are expected in the EU and the United Kingdom, Brazil, the Russian Federation, Mexico and Canada. In the EU and UK, strong import demand, particularly from China, is supporting an expansion of the sector.
In Brazil, stable feed costs and large numbers of pig herds support production, while in the Russian Federation production growth is supported by large-scale investments in new breeding and processing facilities.
Global pork exports are estimated at 10.6 million tonnes in 2020, an increase of 11.2% from last year, predominantly driven by higher anticipated imports from China, along with moderate increases in purchases from Vietnam, the Philippines, Chile and Ukraine.
Exports
In China, pork imports are expected to increase by 1.2 million tonnes or 42% in 2020, reaching 4.1 million tonnes, equivalent to 40% of global pork trade volume. Similarly, imports from the Philippines and Vietnam are projected to increase primarily to offset production shortfalls caused by the ASF disease. Limited domestic supplies are also expected to increase imports from Ukraine. On the other hand, the Republic of Korea is expected to reduce its pork purchases due to a contraction in domestic foodservice sales.
The majority of global pork imports in 2020 are expected to be met by the US, EU and UK, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and Chile. Despite the expected small contraction in production, the US will likely see its exports rise by 13%, with volume directed to China, Mexico, Japan, Canada, the Republic of Korea and Australia.
In the EU and UK, increased availability has resulted from falling domestic pork consumption and increased production, which could lead to greater exports, especially to China, following recently signed agreements between China and China. and the main EU suppliers.
Brazil's pork exports could also increase, due to increased deliveries to China, although sales to other trading partners could fall.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas
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