The market adjusted expectations for the Brazilian economy and began to see a weaker performance in industrial production next year, according to the Focus survey released by the Central Bank this Monday.
The weekly survey showed that the expectation for industry growth in 2020 fell to 2.02%, from 2.20% previously. This year, the contraction in production is now estimated at 0.71%, from 0.70%.
Despite this, the economic growth forecast was slightly improved for both years. For 2019, the expectation is for an expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.12% –0.02 percentage points more than in the previous week–, and for next year the account improved by 0.01 point, to 2.25% .
For inflation, the economists consulted started to see an increase in the IPCA this year of 3.86%, compared to 3.84% before, maintaining the vision of 3.60% in 2020.
The center of the official target for 2019 is 4.25 percent and, for 2020, 4 percent, both with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points plus or minus.
The weekly survey with a hundred economists also showed that the basic interest rate continues to be calculated at 4.5% at the end of next year, after the Central Bank last week cut the Selic rate by 0.5 percentage points for the fourth time consecutively, to the new historic low of 4.5%. The BC indicated caution regarding interest rates going forward amid a stronger economic recovery.
The Top-5, the group of those with the most accurate forecasts, continues to see the Selic at 4.25% at the end of next year.
