The Federation of Business Entities of Rio Grande do Sul (Federasul) held, this Thursday (12), its annual lunch with journalists, when it presented the perspectives for the Brazilian and Gaucho economy. Optimistically, the entity showed the 2019 results and recalled that they suggest a projection as good indicators for 2020.
President Simone Leite valued the importance of press freedom and the role of good journalism. He stated that in 2019 the entity was mobilized and participated in many decisions that made the business environment more friendly. He recognized the leading role of public agents who allowed the reforms and, with this, the creation of a stable environment for entrepreneurs.
Speaking about the economic part, the vice-president of Federasul, Fernando Marchet, said that, in the global panorama, to contextualize Brazil, 2020 begins marked by two important global events: US x China Commercial “War” and the departure of the United Kingdom , from the Eurozone (Brexit). In the Brazilian scenario, he was confident: “We are optimistic and, despite the ups and downs of the economy, Brazil should have a good performance, which should be repeated in 2021. If Brazil continues with this economic strategy, we believe that the GDP will reach at 2.7% in 2020 and 3.5% in 2021”, he stated.
For next year, the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index), which represents official Brazilian inflation, should reach 3.8%. Bank interest, which was reduced by COPOM (Monetary Policy Council), of the Central Bank, to 4.25%, will increase next year (5%) and also in 2021 (6.5%).
There is no doubt, in Marchet's view, that GDP performance in 2019 and 2020 will be impacted by the Pension Reform. According to the economist “it [reform] will be responsible for saving public spending by R$ 800 billion by the end of the next decade (20/30). And from R$ 3.2 trillion (savings of 400%) for a 20-year horizon (30/40),” he stated.
From a political perspective, the president hopes that the Federal Government's focus will be on tax modernization, the Federative Pact - which, according to studies, projects an injection of R$ 450 billion over the next 15 years for Brazilian states and municipalities -, as well as the extinction of 1000 municipalities that are financially unsustainable.
In the Rio Grande do Sul scenario, Federasul is betting on growth exceeding 2% and, just like the Federal one, the State Government must focus on Administrative Reform. In Simone Leite's view, “it is not possible for RS to spend more than 80% on payroll alone”. She recalled that the Entity agreed to the renewal, until 2020, of the ICMS increase, but recalled that “the business class has been giving all its blood for a long time. There is a need for other sectors and corporations to also commit to reducing public spending, in favor of a thriving economy that brings Rio Grande do Sul to prominence, as it always has been”, he stated.
Source: agrolink
