The Gross Production Value (GVP) is expected to grow by 0.1% in 2019 compared to last year and total R$608.6 billion, according to an estimate by the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA). The expectation for GVP, which measures gross revenue from the activity “from the farm gate inwards”, is an increase in livestock revenue (7.8%) and a decrease in agriculture (-4.1%) compared to 2018.
In this context, livestock revenue is expected to rise from R$215.03 billion in 2018 to R$231.7 billion this year. The projection for agriculture's GVA is a decline from R$393.1 billion to R$376.8 billion in the same period.
“Data from January to July 2019 show a substantial increase in agricultural and livestock production compared to 2018. However, while prices for livestock activities have also increased – albeit at a slower pace compared to production – agricultural crops, in general, have seen a decline in prices”, explains the CNA.
In livestock, the main increases expected are for the swine (19.9%) and chicken (14.2%) sectors. Revenue from the beef sector is expected to rise by 2.7%. Milk and eggs will also see increases this year compared to last year, of 9.8% and 7.8%, respectively.
Soybean GVP is expected to fall by 14.8% in 2019, totaling R$142.5 billion, driven by a 11% reduction in prices and a 3.5% reduction in production. Coffee, sugarcane and rice will also have lower revenues in 2019, reflecting lower prices and lower production. For corn, the scenario is for a 15.9% increase in GVP, driven by a 23% increase in production, even with a 5.8% drop in prices this year.
