According to the daily survey by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics, USP), soybean prices in the Brazilian physical market closed Wednesday (05.06) with average prices for soybeans at Brazilian ports on wheels rising 0.49%, to R$ 81.38/bag. This reduced the losses from June to 1.45%.
In the interior, average prices fell 0.60%, to R$ 75.78/bag, increasing June's losses to 1.75%, according to Cepea. "The strong rise of 1.0% in the dollar exchange rate, plus the firmness of + 10 cents/bushel in premiums offset the equally strong fall of 1.44% in the soybean exchange rate in Chicago this Wednesday", points out T&F Consultoria Agroeconômica.
According to T&F analyst Luiz Fernando Pacheco, the main events of the day were as follows: “First, soybean premiums at Brazilian ports were 10 cents/bushel firmer. Second, China increased its purchase of soybeans in South America to 22 positions (1.32 million tons) this week alone. And finally, the Paper market in Paranaguá traded June at +107 and +110, July at +125 and August at +125”.
FUNDAMENTALS
At a conference in São Paulo, Itaú BBA’s senior agribusiness analyst, Guilherme Bellotti, stated that “if everything goes well with the US soybean harvest, prices will be below $ 8.0/bushel next season. There is not much bullish news that could take soybean prices to another level. Even with the shock in US production, the stock/use ratio in the world should still be comfortable.”
