The incidence of African swine fever (ASF) may cause losses in Chinese pig production from 25% to 35%. This is what Christine McCracken, senior protein analyst at global bank Rabobank, said in an interview with agriculture.com after learning that the disease will affect around 150 to 200 million pigs in the country.
This loss is at least 30% greater than annual US pork production and almost as large as Europe's annual pork supply. Additionally, Rabobank expects production losses to exceed 10% in Vietnam, the world's fifth-largest pork producing country and a significant supplier to China. The bank also indicates that there will be a net supply gap of almost 10 million tons in total 2019 animal protein supply, which will increase farm and consumer prices.
“Initially, there were many conflicting data points and it was difficult to separate fact from fiction. As evidence increased and the magnitude of the losses became clear, we were able to provide a better estimate of the loss. It's hard to remember any event that had such a devastating impact on the pork industry. It will be nearly impossible for China to find enough protein to fill this supply gap in the short term. There are many logistical obstacles and there is not enough protein stock”, she comments.
According to the expert, China's problem is not going to disappear anytime soon and there is no easy way to control the disease or how to prevent it.
Source: agrolink | Author: Leonardo Gottems
