Source: Avisitate
The graph above shows the seasonal price curves for live and slaughtered chicken (base: average of the previous year equal to 100). Although they cover long but different periods of time (live chicken: average of 24 years; slaughtered chicken: average of 19 years), they present, as would be logical to expect, practically the same behavior throughout the year.
But in 2019, the two products tend to perform differently. So, for example, both should have started the year (January) worth at least 2% more than the average recorded in the previous year. However, while live chicken increased in value by just half a percent in relation to the 2018 average in the month, slaughtered chicken increased in value by more than 12%.
Even though we are just at the beginning of a new month, this gap will increase in February. So far, instead of reaching an average value of almost 5% higher than the 2018 average, the live bird is experiencing a strong devaluation, its price being equivalent to 98.9% of last year's average.
The price of slaughtered chicken, on average for the first three business days of February, reaches a value that is more than 18% above the 2018 average and tends to rise even more in the coming days.
It is true that, at this point, the live chicken market is starting to show signs of reversing. And although it continues to be subject to discounts in relation to the reference price, such discounts have been specific, allowing negotiations to now take place in a firmer environment.
In other words: there are prospects for a reversal in the price which, this year (30 trading days until yesterday, 5), dropped by more than 5%. But for it to return, at least, to the seasonal curve, live chicken needs to reach an average price higher than the opening value of the current year (R$2.90/kg). From this point of view, therefore, everything indicates that there will continue to be a large gap in relation to the performance of slaughtered chicken.
Source: agrolink | Author: Notify
