Brazil will harvest 0.5% less soy in 2025 than expected until last month, but the harvest will still be a record at 170.9 million tons, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) estimated this Wednesday in its monthly review.
This represents a growth of 16.5 million tons compared to the previous cycle, mainly with the recovery of productivity in most regions after a failed harvest last year.
Abiove, in turn, raised its estimate for Brazil's 2024 harvest by 0.6%, which now stands at 154.39 million tons. The revision came after the consolidation of last year's figures, which were marked by a record in soybean meal exports.
Despite a reassessment in soybean processing in 2024, there was still more soybean leftover than expected, which resulted in an increase of 1 million tons in initial stocks of the grain in 2025, to 4.14 million tons.
Abiove increased final stocks for 2025 by 1.6% compared to last month's survey, totaling 9.1 million tons. This change occurred after the entity maintained estimates for Brazilian soybean exports and processing at record levels. Projections remain at 106.1 million tons for export and 57.5 million tons for processing.
Biodiesel factor
Abiove did not change its estimates for production, domestic consumption and export of soybean meal compared to last month.
But Abiove raised its soybean oil export forecast by 27.3% compared to the February estimate, to 1.4 million tons, after the Brazilian government decided to maintain the biodiesel blend in diesel at 14%.
The expectation was for the blend to increase to 15% from March. However, this did not happen as the government cited inflationary concerns related to food prices. Soybean oil, the main feedstock for biodiesel, accounts for about 74% of the total in 2024.
When making the announcement in February, the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, stated that the government will maintain the blend at 14%. This decision will remain in place until results are observed in food prices. The issue has impacted President Lula's popularity.
If the export forecast was raised, Abiove cut the estimate for soybean oil consumption in Brazil in 2025 by 3.8%, to 10.1 million tons.
In 2024, according to data from the regulatory agency ANP, the industry allocated more than 7 billion liters of soybean oil to biodiesel production.
Source: Roberto Samora | Notícias Agrícolas
