According to Grão Direto's market analysis, the soybean harvest in Brazil has advanced in the last week, favored by the weather and good business opportunities. However, logistical challenges still represent an obstacle for the sector. In the export scenario, the country shipped 16.3 million tons until March 13. The daily export average was 332 thousand tons, maintaining a similar pace to last year.
In the financial market, the depreciation of the dollar on the global scene influenced soybean prices. The May contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 0.78%, closing at US$ 10.17 per bushel, while the July contract fell 0.77%, quoted at US$ 10.31 per bushel. In Brazil, the US currency ended the week at R$ 5.74, down 0.86%. The downward pressure persisted in the physical market, limiting the recovery of oilseed prices.
Impacts of the tariff war and new demands
In the coming days, the market should continue to monitor developments in the tariff war. While tariffs on Mexico seem unlikely, China has imposed new taxes on the US agricultural sector, reducing American purchases and benefiting Brazilian soybean meal. However, the lack of suitable terminals in the country could hinder export logistics. In addition, starting in January, the European Union will require certification against deforestation (EUDR), which could impact Brazilian soybeans.
Another factor that is likely to influence the market is the increase in the supply of bulk carriers in South America. If Donald Trump implements tariffs on Chinese-made vessels that dock in the US, part of this fleet will be redirected to South America. As a result, maritime freight costs are likely to decrease, favoring the competitiveness of exports in the region. This change could create new opportunities for Brazilian exporters, boosting trade and strengthening the country's position in the global market.
Despite the expectation of pressure on futures contracts in Chicago, premiums at Brazilian ports should remain firm and may even increase in value. Chinese demand remains strong, and delays in shipments in the US and Brazil are strengthening premiums, countering the seasonal downward trend in March and April.
Source: Aline Merladete | agrolink
