In the first nine months of 2024, the processing industry cocoa recorded a drop of 23.3% in the volume of national almonds received. There were 124.9 thousand tons received, compared to 162.9 thousand tons in the same period of 2023, according to data compiled by SindiDados - Campos Consultores and released by the National Association of Cocoa Processing Industries (AIPC).
Quarterly comparison
When comparing the volume received in the third quarter of 2024 with the same period in 2023, there was a reduction of 4.3%, going from 69.6 thousand tons to 66.6 thousand tons. However, when compared to the second quarter of 2024, the volume in the third quarter registered a significant increase of 67.9%, rising from 39.6 thousand tons to 66.6 thousand tons.
According to Anna Paula Losi, executive president of AIPC, “receipts improved compared to the previous semester, but are still below the volume of the previous year, reflecting a downward trend in 2024, caused by climatic factors and losses to pests, such as witches' broom and brown rot”.
Receipt by state
Bahia, in turn, accounted for 50.6% of the total cocoa beans received by the processing industry in the first nine months of 2024, totaling 63.2 thousand tons. In comparison, this number represents a drop of 30.5% compared to the same period in 2023, when the state supplied 91 thousand tons.
Meanwhile, Pará was responsible for 45.6% of the volume received, with 56.9 thousand tons, which indicates a reduction of 13.5% compared to 2023, when the receipt was 65.8 thousand tons. In addition, Espírito Santo and Rondônia, together, accounted for 3.9% of the total almonds received, with a volume of 4.8 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 18.4% compared to the previous year.
Losi also highlighted that “several investments are being made to increase productivity in existing areas, as well as in new areas, but these projects take time to show results. The climate extremes of 2024 have considerably affected traditional cultivation regions.”
Drop in cocoa grinding
Cocoa milling in Brazil fell 10.8% in the first nine months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023. The volume processed was 169.7 thousand tons, compared to 190.4 thousand tons in the previous year.
In the third quarter of 2024, milling also recorded a drop of 13.5% compared to the same period in 2023. The volume processed went from 64 thousand tons to 55.3 thousand tons. According to Losi, “milling fell due to the low quality of the almonds received, which presented high levels of dirt. In addition, there was a drop in demand, caused by market instability”.
Import and export
Bahia accounted for 50.6% of the total cocoa beans received by the processing industry in the first nine months of 2024, with 63.2 thousand tons. This number represents a drop of 30.5% compared to the same period in 2023, when the state supplied 91 thousand tons.
Despite low production, exports of cocoa derivatives remained stable. There was an increase from 35.5 thousand tons in 2023 to 36.6 thousand tons in 2024. The data shows an upward trend between the last two quarters.
International market analysis
According to Caio Santos, market analyst at StoneX, the 2024/25 season is expected to see the first global cocoa supply surplus in four years. This will be driven by a recovery in global production and a contraction in demand, due to rising prices throughout 2023 and 2024.
StoneX projects a surplus of 166,000 tonnes in the global supply and demand balance for 2024/25. This represents a significant improvement compared to the deficit of almost half a million tonnes recorded in the 2023/24 season. Production in Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest producer, is expected to increase by 12.1%, reaching 1.95 million tonnes. Production in Ghana is expected to grow by 33%, reaching 600,000 tonnes. For Brazil, the expectation is a recovery of 20.6%, with production of 205,000 tonnes, if weather conditions normalize.
Santos highlighted that “cocoa prices in New York rose 61% in 2023 and increased another 65% in 2024”.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas
