Sowing of the 2024/25 summer crop in Brazil advanced to 16.2% of the national area last week, according to Grão Direto. This index, however, is lower than the 18.3% recorded in the same period in 2023, according to data from Conab. The positive highlight was the progress observed in the South of the country, where the planting pace surpassed other regions.
Brazilian exports of corn dropped 28% from last year, totaling less than 7 million tons so far.
Challenges for the 2025 second crop
As for the forecasts for this week, the analysis points to challenges for the 2025 second crop. Regions such as Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná, which had already started planting soybeans at this time in 2023, still do not have ideal planting conditions for this year, which has generated concerns among producers. Only the southern states have started planting so far, according to the most recent data.
Uncertainty in the pace of soybean sowing could reduce the area of the second corn crop, putting pressure on cereal prices.
Corn exports down
According to the weekly analysis, the pace of Brazilian corn exports also shows a downward trend. According to Secex, between January and August 2023, there was a drop of approximately 40% in exports. Despite this slowdown, when compared to the average of the last five years, the scenario does not seem so alarming. Brazil exported 17.95 million tons, slightly above the historical average of 17.70 million tons.
One of the main factors behind this reduction in exports was undoubtedly the 60% decrease in purchases from China compared to the previous year. Furthermore, this fact represents a significant contrast with the so-called “Golden Year” of 2022, when exports were record-breaking.
Domestic market and corn price
In the domestic market, corn prices tend to continue rising, with the possibility of reaching the R$ 70.00 mark on the B3, reflecting the expectation of a smaller planted area. In Chicago, corn had a positive week, surpassing the US$ 4.00 per bushel barrier. If this trend continues, prices may test the US$ 4.27 and US$ 4.40 levels. However, with the American harvest putting pressure on the market, prices may decline, with support at the US$ 4.08, US$ 4.00 and, in case of loss, US$ 3.90 levels.
Speculators and futures contracts
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported a slight decrease in selling pressure, with a reduction of 2.1 thousand contracts of net positions of speculators, which went from -66.3 thousand to -64.2 thousand contracts. This movement may indicate a gradual recovery in the corn market.
Source: Seane Lennon | agrolink
