The prices of soy rose more than 2% on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) this Friday, September 27, extending the gains recorded previously. At around 1:40 pm (Brasília time), the prices of the most traded contracts rose between 23.25 and 26.25 points. The November contract already reached US$ 10.66, while the May contract reached US$ 11.09 per bushel.
The main driver for soybean futures is soymeal, which has surged more than 5% on the CBOT. In addition, the market remains concerned about supply in key origins such as Argentina. Consequently, the nearest soymeal contract came in at US$ 344.40 per short ton.
“Bran rises sharply this Friday in Chicago, therefore supporting the grain on the stock exchange and in the physical market in Brazil”, highlight market analysts at Pátria Agronegócios.
Impact of climate conditions in the USA and Brazil
According to Agrinvest Commodities, “U.S. traders are concerned about poor soybean quality in the South due to wet weather in the Delta. This could impact mills in fulfilling export and delivery contracts on the CBOT. Soybean crush in September could also be lower, following the underperformance in August.”
In addition, soybean futures recovered losses from the previous session, which exceeded 1%, due to climate concerns in Brazil and optimism about Chinese demand, driven by the derivatives market.
Expectations of China's measures and impact on commodities
The soybean market also reflects the positive outlook as China’s new economic stimulus measures, announced by Beijing, come into play. President Xi Jinping has even stated that the Chinese government will “spend as much as necessary” to achieve its economic growth target of 5% by 2025.
In addition, “more fiscal measures are expected to be announced ahead of China’s week-long holiday that begins on Oct. 1,” Reuters news agency reported, adding that top Communist Party leaders have shown greater urgency over the economic turmoil.
Therefore, the market expects these measures to increase domestic consumption in China, influencing the demand for commodities, especially soybeans. Consequently, forecasts indicate record soybean imports in 2025.
Dollar Falls Against Real
Another factor being monitored by the market is the behavior of the dollar in relation to the real. This Friday, at around 2:15 pm (Brasília time), the US currency fell 0.21%, being quoted at R$ 5.43, registering another day of devaluation. Factories may face difficulties in maintaining the standards required by the international market.
Source: Carla Mendes | Notícias Agrícolas
