A soybean harvest Brazil's production in 2024/25 was estimated at a record 169.9 million tonnes, in a base scenario outlined this Monday by consultancy Céleres, which would imply growth of 11.8% compared to last season, affected by climate problems.
The increase in production in the new cycle, with planting starting this month and harvesting concentrated in the first part of 2025, would happen more due to a recovery in productivity, since the area planted in 2024/25 should have a “slight increase” of 1.6% in relation to the previous harvest, reaching 46.2 million hectares (+700 thousand hectares in the comparison), according to Céleres.
“The growth in area is lower due to positive margins, but below the average of the last decade,” said Gabriel Santos, analyst at Céleres.
Céleres projects an operating margin of R$1,349/hectare (R$21% of gross revenue) in 2024/25, with a possible recovery in productivity. In the last harvest, dry weather in the Center-West and South and floods in Rio Grande do Sul affected productivity.
Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the soybean harvest
In a more optimistic scenario for the harvest, whose planting is expected to begin this month, assuming the planted area grows to 46.5 million hectares and higher productivity, production would have the potential to increase to 178.2 million tons, according to the consultancy.
In a more pessimistic scenario, on the other hand, the area would grow to 45.9 million hectares, and production would still increase to 161.4 million tons, still counting on an increase in productivity.
Exports from Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of soybeans, could reach a record 107 million tonnes in a baseline scenario, versus 102.4 million in a more pessimistic view and 112.3 million in the most optimistic expectation.
In the previous season, export projections indicated 97 million tons.
“Despite the Chinese economic slowdown, there should be no decline in local or global demand for soybeans,” said Santos.
Céleres estimates 3.3% growth in crushing, reaching 55 million tons in 2025, driven by the use of soybean oil for biodiesel. According to the analyst, even in a pessimistic supply scenario, stocks at the end of 2025 should be higher than those estimated for 2024.
“The 24/25 scenario, combined with high global stocks, reinforces the forecast of a drop in domestic soybean prices in 2025,” said the expert. He highlights the need for efficiency in production and to take advantage of market opportunities, especially with the devaluation of the real.
Corn
According to Céleres, the area planted with summer corn is expected to fall by 2.5%, to 4.3 million hectares, with a reduction of 100 thousand hectares. “The cost and price scenario for the 24/25 corn harvest indicates positive margins, but below the historical average and soybean average,” said Santos.
The estimate for corn production in the first harvest of 2024/25 is 27.1 million tons, representing an increase of 4% compared to the previous one.
“The expectation of a low-intensity La Niña phenomenon could have a more significant impact on the summer corn harvest. Especially in the center-south region, which is more likely to suffer from lower rainfall, even if the phenomenon is of low intensity,” said the expert.
Considering all three corn harvests in Brazil, which grows most of the second-crop cereal, the total national supply should be close to 134.1 million tons. An increase of 5 million tons compared to the previous cycle, according to an assessment by Céleres.
Source: Roberto Samora and Gabriel Araujo | Notícias Agrícolas
