About a month before the end of the 2023/24 business year of cotton North American, the assessment is consolidated that Brazil will assume global leadership in the export of feathers for the first time, ending a decades-long reign by the United States.
According to the president of the National Association of Cotton Exporters (Anea), Miguel Faus, the leadership arrives ahead of schedule and comes after an annual jump of around 85% in exports from the South American country, amid record harvests and shipments in Brazil and strong demand from Asian countries, including China, while in the USA production declined due to climate problems.
“We think we achieved the result of being the largest exporter a little earlier than we imagined could happen. The failure of the American harvest and the increase in the Brazilian harvest are the main reasons,” Faus told Reuters.
He cited data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) itself, which in a report this month revised upwards the forecast for Brazilian cotton exports by 300,000 bales, to 12.4 million bales, while reducing the forecast for cotton exports by 500,000 bales. perspective of shipments from North Americans in the 12-month period (August 2023 to July 2024), for 11.8 million bales.
In the 2023/24 season, Brazil had already surpassed the United States in cotton production, according to the USDA, ranking third in the global ranking behind China and India – positions that should be maintained in 2024/25.
Brazil on a path to overcoming: Towards global leadership
The USDA itself stated that Brazilian exports have maintained a stronger pace than expected and that Brazil is expected to surpass the USA as the largest exporter in 2023/24. That's a leadership position Americans have held since the early 1990s, the government department noted in a report seen by Reuters.
According to Anea, Brazil has room to grow even more in the next year of exports (2024/25), as it is starting to harvest a harvest that should record a new record, and another increase is possible in 2025/26.
“Things are going well, I think that in the medium term Brazil will consolidate itself in this leadership position”, stated Anea, highlighting the differences in quality, traceability and productivity of Brazilian crops.
For 2024/25, the USDA predicts that the US will surpass Brazil in exports with 13 million bales, while planting is finalized. But the competition will be fierce, head to head.
Furthermore, for the leader, it is too early to say about the impacts of Brazil's new position in the market, which remains “very competitive”. “The New York cotton price does not give us an advantage, as it only reflects the price of US cotton. It’s not Brazilian”, he noted.
He says that Brazil's leadership in cotton is smaller than in coffee, where the country dominates in production and exports. “In the case of cotton, the forces are more balanced… but of course, if Brazil increases or decreases production, the market pays attention…”, he commented.
Record in production and export
Brazil's 2023/24 harvest year ends in June with record exports estimated at 2.6 million tons, according to Faus. Until last Friday, accumulated shipments of the harvest totaled 2.538 million tons, surpassing the previous record of 2020/21 with 2.414 million. Record surpassed after years due to the pandemic and unstable market; sector recovers with favorable climate, says the president of Anea.
Brazilian exports grew due to greater demand from countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, which previously faced financial difficulties. This recovery helped to exceed expectations. “We thought we would initially export 2.4 million, 2.45 million tons.”
Among the main markets for Brazilian cotton are China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Türkiye and Pakistan.
Source: Roberto Samora | Notícias Agrícolas
