According to the analysis of the International Center for Economic Analysis and Agricultural Market Studies (Ceema), market prices soy after returning to the lowest levels of weeks ago, until May 1st in Chicago, they jumped 30 points on Thursday (02), driven by strike problems in mills in Argentina and losses caused by floods in Argentina. Rio Grande do Sul. As a result, the oilseed bushel closed this Thursday (02) at US$ 11.90, against US$ 11.62 a week earlier. The April average closed at US$ 11.64, corresponding to a decrease of 1.3% over the previous month. Remembering that the average for April last year was US$ 14.88/bushel. Therefore, in one year, a bushel of soybeans lost more than three dollars.
That said, soybean planting in the US is going well, with the weather helping. Until April 28th, it reached 18% of the expected area, well above the historical average for that date, which is 10%. This puts downward pressure on Chicago.
Fluctuations in the soybean market: Impacts of US exports and strikes in Argentina
Additionally, in the week of 4/25, the US shipped 250,332 tons of soybeans, bringing the commercial year total to 38.7 million. In other words, still 18% less than what was exported in the same period of the previous year. It is also worth highlighting that the market is awaiting the May supply and demand report, scheduled for the 10th. It will be the first of the year to indicate projections for the new global and US soybean harvest.
In turn, in Argentina, workers in the soybean milling industries began a strike on 04/29, generating fears that, as a result of this movement, there could be a lack of soybean meal on the world market since Argentina exports around half of the soybean meal. traded around the world. As a result, bran prices rose in Chicago, closing May 2nd at US$ 357.10/short ton, the highest value for the first month quoted since last February.
On the other hand, oil prices fell sharply in the period, reaching 42.29 cents per pound in the week, the lowest value for the first month quoted since January 22, 2021, therefore, there is more than three years. This strike, along with those in other sectors of the neighboring country's economy, seeks to block or limit the progress of a labor reform led by Argentine president Javier Milei, currently underway in that country's Congress.
Source: Seane Lennon | agrolink
