The Brazilian state of Mato Grosso faces its biggest loss of soybean harvest registered, significantly affecting Brazil's total soybean production in the year 2023/24. Furthermore, according to estimates from the consultancy company Itaú BBA, reported by AgriCensus, national production is expected to reach 153 million tons.
The December 20 Itaú BBA report indicates that Mato Grosso crop productivity fell by 20% compared to initial estimates. The state is expected to produce less than 40 million tons. “If our estimates are correct, this will be the biggest soybean crop loss in the history of Mato Grosso”, informed the consultancy.
National and global soybean estimates
Abiove reduced the forecast for Brazilian soybean production from 161.9 to 160.3 million tons for 2023/24, according to AgriCensus on December 22.
Based on the latest projections from Itaú BBA, Brazilian soybean production is estimated at 153 million tons for 2023/24. With an increase of 3% in domestic consumption, the consultancy estimates exports between 95 and 96 million tons. In contrast, Abiove estimates exports at 99.3 million tonnes, a drop from the 100.2 million tonnes previously forecast.
In Argentina, soybean production for 2023/24 is estimated to reach 50 million tons, which indicates a slightly tighter global balance than expected. Furthermore, global demand for grains and oilseeds is expected to grow by around 5% year-on-year. Consequently, this increase in demand should impact prices during the season.
Source: Oils & Fats International
