The seven main oil-producing countries olive oil in the world are facing challenges in the 2023/24 harvest, with production forecast of 1.97 million tons, according to a report by the Olive Oil Times based on interviews with farmers, millers and local authorities.
This estimate reflects a decline of 7% compared to the previous year and a decline of 23% compared to the average of the previous four seasons, as per the October 31 report. In 2022, Spain, Italy, Tunisia, Greece, Turkey, Morocco and Portugal accounted for 72% of global olive oil production, compared to 82% in the last four harvests.
Global olive oil production in the 2023/24 harvest will likely be below the 2.94 million tonnes produced in 2022/23, the lowest yield since 2016/17, according to the report.
Juan Vilar, strategic consultant for the olive oil sector in Spain, predicts an even sharper drop, with global production potentially falling to 2.4 million tonnes, representing a decrease of 18% compared to 2022/23 and 24% below the average for four previous harvests.
Despite expectations of better harvests in Spain, Italy, Tunisia, Morocco and Portugal, production increases will be more modest compared to predicted declines in Turkey and Greece.
Contrasting perspectives on olive oil production in Europe and North Africa
After a historically unfavorable harvest last year, Spanish authorities are optimistic about the 2023/24 harvest, forecasting an increase in production of 15%, from 664,033 tonnes to 765,362 tonnes.
However, it will still be 34% below the average of the previous four crop years. Prices are expected to continue to rise through May.
Italy: Producers aim for production of more than 290,000 tonnes in 2023/24. This implies an increase of 23% compared to last year. However, it is still 4% below the average of the four previous harvests.
Tunisia: Producers are optimistic. They expect a significant recovery. The estimate is 220,000 tons of olive oil in the 2023/24 harvest. This contrasts with the previous season's 180,000 tons.
Greece: Last year, it recorded a record yield of 330,000 tons. However, projections indicate a significant drop to around 200,000 tons. This represents a decrease of almost 40% compared to the previous year and is 28% below the average of the last four years.
Türkiye: The world's second largest producer faces a significant reduction in harvest. The 2023/24 harvest is estimated to reach just 180,000 tonnes, representing a drop of 57% compared to the previous year. Furthermore, this production is 33% below the average of the four previous harvests.
Morocco: An increase of 10% in olive oil production is expected compared to the 2022/23 harvest, reaching an estimated total of 171,600 tonnes.
Portugal: Authorities and producers predict an increase in olive oil production for the 2023/24 harvest. The estimate is around 145,000 tons, representing a growth of 16% compared to the previous year. This also slightly exceeds the average of the last four years, recording an increase of just over 1%.
Source: Oils & Fats International
