The production of wheat in Argentina will be lower than previously expected due to extremely dry weather that has restricted harvest prospects, the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) said in a report. Production in the South American country will total 14.5 million tons in the 2023-2024 marketing year, the FAS said in an attaché report. This is below the USDA's October forecast of 16.5 million tons.
Exports are now forecast at 10 million tonnes, down from a previous forecast of 11.5 million, the government said. “Drought conditions have continued for three consecutive years in most of the wheat area, except in the southeast and part of southwest Buenos Aires province,” the FAS said. “Analysts and producers are still evaluating the negative impact of the frosts at the beginning of October, which could further reduce production.”
Forecasters in April and May expected an El Niño weather pattern to move into the area and bring more rain than normal, but that did not materialize, the agency said. This has resulted in the area being reduced and some fields being given over to livestock in recent weeks. The yield of Argentina's wheat fields fell by 13% compared to the average over the last decade, the FAS said.
“Most analysts expect (the rains) to finally arrive in abundance, covering a wide area,” the agency said in its report. “If this does not happen, (FAS) expects additional production cuts.”
Source: Successful Farming, with translation from agrolink.
